Commentary:
-I am not amused at the whole LSU and Alabama rematch. Alabama may very well be the second best team in the country and I know the BCS is designed to put in #1 vs #2, but #2 already had its shot, at home no less, and lost. Members of the 2006 Michigan team should be raising hell right now over it.
-Oklahoma State: go blow out Stanford and make for a huge argument that will never be settled.
-Give me this matchup in a playoff and I'd be fine. Stanford, Oklahoma State deserve their shot too.
Cheering for:
-Yes, all seventy teams in the bowl games. There may be too many of these games but the players enjoy them.
Laughing at:
-the BCS: Might as well just drop the C. Remember when the BCS formula really meant that "every game counts?" Remember when they factored in Strength of Schedule and Margin of Victory? Remember when you got points for beating a highly ranked team? Knee-jerk reactions to perceived injustices in it gave us the formula we have now, which is 2/3 human polls. Humans are too easily influenced. ESPN says the SEC is the greatest thing ever and everyone else believes it. Congratulations guys, you've created the worst system possible.
Feeling sorry for:
-The schools in some of these games: the Bowl games have it setup where the teams invited have to purchase a block of tickets to the game, usually at inflated (and overvalued) prices. The schools generally have to eat these tickets as cheaper ones can be found elsewhere (stubhub for instance). Clemson and West Virginia will have to eat about a million dollars worth of tickets for the Orange Bowl, per a report that came out yesterday. The bowl games aren't losing money. Most would make money even if nobody showed up thanks to the TV deal. This is something that needs to stop.
Top 25: I know what it says here. My own formula is deceiving. Yes Oklahoma State's one loss was wretched and drops them down to 10th.
1) LSU
2) Alabama
3) Stanford
4) Boise State
5) Houston
6) Arkansas
7) Oregon
8) Kansas State
9) Georgia
10) Oklahoma State
11) Virginia Tech
12) South Carolina
13) Southern Cal
14) Penn State
15) Michigan
16) Arkansas State
17) TCU
18) Wisconsin
19) Baylor
20) Michigan State
21) Nebraska
22) Oklahoma
23) Clemson
24) West Virginia
25) BYU
The picks: I admit I've not had time to research most of these, so I'm going with gut feelings here more often than not. That and any kind of streaks going into it I'll factor in as well.
-New Mexico Bowl: Temple vs Wyoming in Albuquerque, NM: This will be a virtual home game for Wyoming. Temple isn't bad at all but isn't that good. Wyoming by 7.
-Idaho Potato Bowl: Ohio vs Utah State in Boise, ID: Ohio has never won a bowl game, Utah State hasn't been to one in a long time. Utah State shows up to win here, by 10.
-New Orleans Bowl: San Diego State vs Louisiana Lafayette in New Orleans, LA: This is Lafayette's first bowl game ever. San Diego State is a much better team here. SDSU by 10.
-Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl: FIU vs Marshall in St. Petersburg, FL: If you're looking for a head coach for your program, FIU's Cristobal is your man. Marshall has one good win all year (Southern Miss), FIU did have a nice win on the road at Louisville. I believe the team much closer to home wins here, FIU by 3.
-Poinsettia Bowl: TCU vs Louisiana Tech in San Diego, CA: TCU isn't quite the same as years past but is too strong for the Bulldogs of Louisiana Tech. TCU by 7.
-MAACO Bowl: Arizona State vs Boise State in Las Vegas, NV: If Boise State shows up this should be easy for them. With enough on the line, they will. Boise State by 20.
-Hawaii Bowl: Nevada vs Southern Miss in Honolulu, HI: This is a rare year where Hawaii isn't in this game. Nevada will be focused, Southern Miss won't be due to the coaching changes. Nevada by 10.
-Independence Bowl: North Carolina vs Missouri in Shreveport, LA: If this were an NCAA Tournament game we'd all watch. Sadly its a bowl game that almost nobody wants to be at. Missouri wins by 10.
-Little Caesar's Bowl: Western Michigan vs Purdue in Detroit, MI: Another Big Ten-MAC matchup? I see similar results too. Purdue by 14.
-Belk Bowl: Louisville vs NC State in Charlotte, NC: NC state has been much stronger in the past month despite underachieving earlier in the year. NC State by 10.
-Military Bowl: Toledo vs Air Force in Washington, DC: Neither team has a big win on the year, Toledo's best was a win at Temple and Air Force won at Navy. I'll give this one to Air Force, by only by 2.
-Holiday Bowl: Cal vs Texas in San Diego, CA: These two teams created a bunch of controversy in 2004 with the Rose Bowl at-large pick. Outside of that there isn't much history. The same head coaches are in place from that time, though neither have bright futures anymore. Texas is the stronger team here, should win by 3.
-Champs Sports Bowl: Florida State vs Notre Dame in Orlando, FL: How the mighty have fallen. Games between these two have decided national championships before. But this isn't the 90s anymore. Florida State has underachieved quite a bit this year, Notre Dame too against good competition. Florida State wins the virtual home game by 7.
-Alamo Bowl: Washington vs Baylor in San Antonio, TX: This should be a fun game to watch if the offenses are clicking. That doesn't happen too often in bowl games though. Washington pulls off the win here by 4.
-Armed Forces Bowl: BYU vs Tulsa in Dallas, TX: The four teams that Tulsa lost to all year have a combined six losses (Oklahoma - 3; Oklahoma State - 1; Houston - 1; Boise State - 1). BYU isn't a bad team either and wins it here. BYU by 3.
-Pinstripe Bowl: Iowa State vs Rutgers in New York City, NY: Last year's Pinstripe Bowl proved entertaining. This one I don't see it as so. Rutgers in a virtual home game will disappoint. Iowa State by 3.
-Music City Bowl: Mississippi State vs Wake Forest in Nashville, TN: Let's see... SEC vs ACC in a bowl game. Bet on the SEC team. To be fair, the ACC has held its own in this game the past two years. I don't see it becoming three though. Mississippi State by 3.
-Insight Bowl: Iowa vs Oklahoma in Tempe, AZ: Oklahoma will be well rested and healed up coming into this game. Iowa is never a pushover, but Oklahoma will be too much here. Sooners by 10.
-Meineke Car Care Bowl: Texas A&M vs Northwestern in Houston, TX: Northwestern is a team that never should be overlooked (ask Nebraska). Texas A&M is going through a coaching transition and that will burn them here. Northwestern by 7.
-Sun Bowl: Georgia Tech vs Utah in El Paso, TX: Lately Utah has been money in bowl games, GT's offense can't score more than once. Add in elevation differences (Salt Lake City: 4300ft, El Paso: 3000 ft, Atlanta: 1000 ft), a decent Utah run defense, and you get a low scoring Utah win. Utah by 4.
-Liberty Bowl: Cincinnati vs Vanderbilt in Memphis, TN: Vanderbilt is pumped to be here, Cincinnati isn't so much after losing out on the BCS due to rankings. Vandy by 7.
-Fight Hunger Bowl: Illinois vs UCLA in San Francisco CA: This bowl game won't be about fighting hunger, it'll be about coaching changes and avoiding losing records. Illinois is 6-6 on the year, UCLA 6-7. Illinois's running game is better and wins here. Illinois by 4.
-Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Virginia vs Auburn in Atlanta, GA: The old Peach Bowl deserves a more hyped up match, but this will do. This isn't last year's Auburn team but isn't a bad one. Virginia isn't too shabby either but isn't enough to beat Auburn here. Auburn by 10.
-TicketCity Bowl: Houston vs Penn State in Dallas, TX: Houston faced exactly one ranked team all year and lost. Penn State's defense will shred them. Penn State by 14.
-Outback Bowl: Michigan State vs Georgia in Tampa, FL: Given that I am a Georgia Tech graduate and my better half is a Michigan fan, we're cheering for the meteor here. Since that's extremely rare, the game will go on. Michigan State got embarrassed last year again Alabama in the bowl game, they won't get embarrassed here, but won't win. UGA by 10.
-Capital One Bowl: Nebraska vs South Carolina in Orlando, FL: This will all depend on how well Nebraska's defense does. If they do well the South Carolina won't get much done. If they do poorly South Carolina will run all over them. I'm betting on the former and say Nebraska wins a low scoring contest.
-Gator Bowl: Ohio State vs Florida in Jacksonville, FL: The Gator Bowl gave up entertaining contests between the upper ranks of the ACC and Big East for... two 6-6 teams from the SEC and Big Ten. Good luck there, this may be the worst bowl game of them all. Neither team has looked decent lately. I'll give the nod to Florida since it is a short bus ride home afterwards. Florida by 2.
-Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs Oregon in Pasadena, CA: Oregon won its first Rose Bowl game in 1916, has been four times since and lost all four. Wisconsin's record is a little better, especially lately (3-1 in last four). Wisconsin rolls over the Ducks here. Wisconsin by 7.
-Fiesta Bowl: Stanford vs Oklahoma State in Glendale, AZ: Both teams deserve a shot at the BCS Championship given the two teams that are playing in it. Sadly that won't happen. I get the feeling that Oklahoma State will be flat in this game. Stanford will take on anyone. Stanford by 14.
-Sugar Bowl: Michigan vs Virginia Tech in New Orleans, LA: an ACC team in a BCS game? Easy pickings. Michigan by 10.
-Orange Bowl: West Virginia vs Clemson in Miami Gardens, FL: another ACC team in a BCS game? Easy enough: West Virginia by 14.
-Cotton Bowl: Kansas State vs Arkansas in Arlington, TX: While the Cotton Bowl may not be a BCS game, and it should be given the history, it has two higher ranked teams than the Sugar and Orange bowls, and will probably be a better game overall! Kansas State has had a great year overall, winning with toughness and determination in a lot of games. They will need it against Arkansas! The SEC has done well here winning 7 of the last 8. Arkansas by 7.
-BBVA Compass Bowl: SMU vs Pittsburgh in Birmingham, AL: I don't see the Pitt team being focused here at all, and you need to be focused to beat SMU. SMU by 10.
-GoDaddy.com Bowl: Arkansas State vs Northern Illinois in Mobile, AL: Arkansas State has had a fine year, winning the Sun Belt and all with a tough defense. Due to the coaching change, I see Northern Illinois pulling off the win here. NIU by 4.
-BCS Championship Game: Alabama vs LSU in New Orleans, LA: In 2003 LSU played for the BCS title here against Oklahoma and won. In 2007 LSU played Ohio State for the BCS title here against Ohio State and won. In 2011 LSU plays Alabama in New Orleans for the BCS title. You do the math. LSU by 10.
Saturday, December 17, 2011
Thursday, December 1, 2011
2011 College Football Week 14 (and 15) predictions!
Commentary:
-Alright folks, this is it for the regular season. Week 15 only has Army vs Navy in Washington, DC so I'm going to throw it in here. It's Championship Saturday, a few regular games thrown in, and then we are done.
-I'll do a post for the bowl games, no worries there.
Cheering for:
-FAU: The Owls manage to win last week. There are no winless teams this year!
-LSU: Getting through the regular season without a loss is quite impressive, especially given the schedule the Tigers had. Three teams in the top 5 when LSU played them, all three still in the top 10 at the end of the regular season! For the record I still don't like Les Miles, but it's hard to argue with the results he gets in Baton Rouge.
-Houston: I don't care if the strength of schedule sucks for Houston, going undefeated is still impressive even if 20 other teams claim they could do it against the same schedule.
Laughing at:
-USC: Congrats on finishing your season with a 10-2 record, a trashing of your cross-town rival, and a big win over Notre Dame thrown in. Why am I laughing? Because that's it. No championship game, no bowl game, NOTHING!
-Maryland: For throwing an exclaimation point onto a horrible season by blowing a 41-14 lead over NC State. The Terrapins gave up 42 straight points to close out the game, the last 7 on a pick-six with under a minute remaining. Protip to Randy Edsall, head coach of the Terrapins: Ralph Friedgen got fired after following up his 2-10 season in 2009 with a 9-4 record in 2010. Therefore you need to win ten to keep your job.
-Miami: 1) How the hell did you lose to that Maryland team? You should have been able to dress walk-ons and win, yet you lost with several suspensions. 2) Why did you just give your first year coach an extension? Usually this is done if the coach has done something big or you fear someone else will hire him away. A 6-6 record, 3-5 in conference isn't anything big (the last coach could do that) and nobody else is going to hire him right now.
-The Big East: who is your champion going to be? And will anybody care? West Virginia, Cincinnati, and Louisville all have two losses in conference play, and each team lost to one of the other two and beat the other.
-Illinois: first team ever to win the first six and lose the last six in the same season. Didn't think conference play was that tough in the Big Ten.
-Colorado: what a great hire Embree was. I know I've already documented it, but that's the reason you don't do a "knee-jerk, opposite of what you had before" hire without putting some serious work into it.
-Tennessee: Vandy is going to a bowl game, you aren't. Losing to Kentucky for the first time since the early 80s? Ouch. The SEC East is the weakest it has been in decades and you finished at the bottom of it.
Top 25:
1) LSU
2) Houston
3) Alabama
4) Stanford
5) Boise State
6) Arkansas
7) Virginia Tech
8) Oregon
9) Georgia
10) Kansas State
11) Oklahoma State
12) Tulsa
13) Arkansas State
14) Michigan
15) Michigan State
16) Penn State
17) Wisconsin
18) TCU
19) Oklahoma
20) Baylor
21) Nebraska
22) San Diego State
23) West Virginia
24) Clemson
25) BYU
The picks: Only nine games worth looking at this week plus the one for next week. It sorta makes up for the 21 from last week.
-West Virginia at South Florida: While I'm writing this, this game should be starting. I swear I'm not watching, though it won't matter. West Virginia is on a roll and South Florida doesn't have enough in the tank to win this and secure bowl eligibility. WVU by 14.
-Marathon MAC Championship: Ohio vs Northern Illinois in Detroit, MI: Looking at some of the numbers, Ohio has decent offense and defense, Northern Illinois has a good offense and poor defense. Defense wins championships, so Ohio wins this one. Ohio by 4.
-PAC 12 Championship: UCLA at Oregon: The spread on this game is 31.5 points in favor of Oregon. A UCLA win would be an all-time of an upset. It won't happen. Take Oregon and lay the points. Oregon by 35.
-Conference USA Championship: Southern Miss at Houston: Southern Miss only has two losses on the year, but they were horrible losses to Marshall and UAB (combined 15 losses between them). Houston is undefeated. Houston's offense is one of the best, and the defense of Houston is only slightly behind Southern Miss' defense. Houston wins this one easily.
-Texas at Baylor: Hard to believe that Baylor has the better ranking and record going into this game. Texas has a much better defense, Baylor is giving up massive points to everyone. Take out the 48-0 win over FCS Stephen F Austin and Baylor is giving up over 40 to everyone else. Texas wins by 7.
-SEC Championship: LSU vs Georgia in Atlanta, GA: I like to look at stats. I look at overall offense and defense numbers. I look at passing and rushing yards. The only thing UGA is ahead of LSU is in passing yards. Everything else is in LSU's favor. It explains the point spread (LSU -13.5). LSU by 14.
-Bedlam; Oklahoma at Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State will be playing for a possible spot in the BCS Championship game, the Big 12 Title, and state bragging rights. It won't matter. Oklahoma rules this series. Mike "I'm a man! I'm 40!" Gundy has not beaten the Sooners yet and this year won't be any different. OU by 10.
-Dr Pepper ACC Championship: Virginia Tech vs Clemson in Charlotte, NC: Clemson is in full-on late-season swoon mode. It showed badly last week in a loss to South Carolina. Virginia Tech is moving quite along. While the chance is long, VT could make the BCS Championship game and will play like it. VT by 21.
-Big Ten Championship: Wisconsin vs Michigan State in Indianapolis, IN: Sutbhub has over 3000 tickets for sale for this game. Ouch. Anyway, Michigan State beat Wisconsin earlier in the year on a Hail Mary play. To be fair, the game was tied going into the play, the fans on both sides will argue over the replay officials' decision to give the Spartans the touchdown. Still, it means this game should be quite entertaining! The numbers don't look good for Michigan State, the defenses are similarly ranked, but the offense rankings favor the Badgers by far. Wisconsin wins this by 10.
-Army-Navy Game;The Unites States Military Academy vs The United States Naval Academy in Washington DC: This is it for both teams this year. Just bragging rights on the line. Air Force won the Commander-In-Chief's trophy this year. Neither team is going to a bowl game. This might be a fun game to watch next weekend though! Both teams show off great option-based rushing attacks. Navy is stronger overall, and gets the nod from me. Navy by 7.
-Alright folks, this is it for the regular season. Week 15 only has Army vs Navy in Washington, DC so I'm going to throw it in here. It's Championship Saturday, a few regular games thrown in, and then we are done.
-I'll do a post for the bowl games, no worries there.
Cheering for:
-FAU: The Owls manage to win last week. There are no winless teams this year!
-LSU: Getting through the regular season without a loss is quite impressive, especially given the schedule the Tigers had. Three teams in the top 5 when LSU played them, all three still in the top 10 at the end of the regular season! For the record I still don't like Les Miles, but it's hard to argue with the results he gets in Baton Rouge.
-Houston: I don't care if the strength of schedule sucks for Houston, going undefeated is still impressive even if 20 other teams claim they could do it against the same schedule.
Laughing at:
-USC: Congrats on finishing your season with a 10-2 record, a trashing of your cross-town rival, and a big win over Notre Dame thrown in. Why am I laughing? Because that's it. No championship game, no bowl game, NOTHING!
-Maryland: For throwing an exclaimation point onto a horrible season by blowing a 41-14 lead over NC State. The Terrapins gave up 42 straight points to close out the game, the last 7 on a pick-six with under a minute remaining. Protip to Randy Edsall, head coach of the Terrapins: Ralph Friedgen got fired after following up his 2-10 season in 2009 with a 9-4 record in 2010. Therefore you need to win ten to keep your job.
-Miami: 1) How the hell did you lose to that Maryland team? You should have been able to dress walk-ons and win, yet you lost with several suspensions. 2) Why did you just give your first year coach an extension? Usually this is done if the coach has done something big or you fear someone else will hire him away. A 6-6 record, 3-5 in conference isn't anything big (the last coach could do that) and nobody else is going to hire him right now.
-The Big East: who is your champion going to be? And will anybody care? West Virginia, Cincinnati, and Louisville all have two losses in conference play, and each team lost to one of the other two and beat the other.
-Illinois: first team ever to win the first six and lose the last six in the same season. Didn't think conference play was that tough in the Big Ten.
-Colorado: what a great hire Embree was. I know I've already documented it, but that's the reason you don't do a "knee-jerk, opposite of what you had before" hire without putting some serious work into it.
-Tennessee: Vandy is going to a bowl game, you aren't. Losing to Kentucky for the first time since the early 80s? Ouch. The SEC East is the weakest it has been in decades and you finished at the bottom of it.
Top 25:
1) LSU
2) Houston
3) Alabama
4) Stanford
5) Boise State
6) Arkansas
7) Virginia Tech
8) Oregon
9) Georgia
10) Kansas State
11) Oklahoma State
12) Tulsa
13) Arkansas State
14) Michigan
15) Michigan State
16) Penn State
17) Wisconsin
18) TCU
19) Oklahoma
20) Baylor
21) Nebraska
22) San Diego State
23) West Virginia
24) Clemson
25) BYU
The picks: Only nine games worth looking at this week plus the one for next week. It sorta makes up for the 21 from last week.
-West Virginia at South Florida: While I'm writing this, this game should be starting. I swear I'm not watching, though it won't matter. West Virginia is on a roll and South Florida doesn't have enough in the tank to win this and secure bowl eligibility. WVU by 14.
-Marathon MAC Championship: Ohio vs Northern Illinois in Detroit, MI: Looking at some of the numbers, Ohio has decent offense and defense, Northern Illinois has a good offense and poor defense. Defense wins championships, so Ohio wins this one. Ohio by 4.
-PAC 12 Championship: UCLA at Oregon: The spread on this game is 31.5 points in favor of Oregon. A UCLA win would be an all-time of an upset. It won't happen. Take Oregon and lay the points. Oregon by 35.
-Conference USA Championship: Southern Miss at Houston: Southern Miss only has two losses on the year, but they were horrible losses to Marshall and UAB (combined 15 losses between them). Houston is undefeated. Houston's offense is one of the best, and the defense of Houston is only slightly behind Southern Miss' defense. Houston wins this one easily.
-Texas at Baylor: Hard to believe that Baylor has the better ranking and record going into this game. Texas has a much better defense, Baylor is giving up massive points to everyone. Take out the 48-0 win over FCS Stephen F Austin and Baylor is giving up over 40 to everyone else. Texas wins by 7.
-SEC Championship: LSU vs Georgia in Atlanta, GA: I like to look at stats. I look at overall offense and defense numbers. I look at passing and rushing yards. The only thing UGA is ahead of LSU is in passing yards. Everything else is in LSU's favor. It explains the point spread (LSU -13.5). LSU by 14.
-Bedlam; Oklahoma at Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State will be playing for a possible spot in the BCS Championship game, the Big 12 Title, and state bragging rights. It won't matter. Oklahoma rules this series. Mike "I'm a man! I'm 40!" Gundy has not beaten the Sooners yet and this year won't be any different. OU by 10.
-Dr Pepper ACC Championship: Virginia Tech vs Clemson in Charlotte, NC: Clemson is in full-on late-season swoon mode. It showed badly last week in a loss to South Carolina. Virginia Tech is moving quite along. While the chance is long, VT could make the BCS Championship game and will play like it. VT by 21.
-Big Ten Championship: Wisconsin vs Michigan State in Indianapolis, IN: Sutbhub has over 3000 tickets for sale for this game. Ouch. Anyway, Michigan State beat Wisconsin earlier in the year on a Hail Mary play. To be fair, the game was tied going into the play, the fans on both sides will argue over the replay officials' decision to give the Spartans the touchdown. Still, it means this game should be quite entertaining! The numbers don't look good for Michigan State, the defenses are similarly ranked, but the offense rankings favor the Badgers by far. Wisconsin wins this by 10.
-Army-Navy Game;The Unites States Military Academy vs The United States Naval Academy in Washington DC: This is it for both teams this year. Just bragging rights on the line. Air Force won the Commander-In-Chief's trophy this year. Neither team is going to a bowl game. This might be a fun game to watch next weekend though! Both teams show off great option-based rushing attacks. Navy is stronger overall, and gets the nod from me. Navy by 7.
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