2012 College Football Week 9!

2012 College Football Week 9

Commentary: This weekend will separate the pretenders from the contenders.  With four matchups between top fifteen teams we will see who the true contenders for the BCS National Championship are.

For Oklahoma its time to get back in the national spotlight.  Kansas State may be undefeated but we saw how quickly that died down the last time they were unbeated this late in the season (1998).
For Notre Dame its time to show that the Irish really are back.  Brian Kelly has them winning in his third season and doing it well.
For Florida its time to build swagger.
For Georgia its time to shake the demons that haunt the team in Jacksonville every year.
For Alabama its time to merely maintain the top status.
For Mississippi State its time to show how far the program has come under Dan Mullen.

Cheering for:
-Florida: It is revenge time.  Please get revenge on UGA from last year.

Laughing at:
-Cincinnati: Going on the road to play a team with only one loss means you shouldn't be overlooking that team.  Cincinnati did and lost on the road to Toledo with the game this week against undefeated Louisville.

Feeling sorry for:
-Southern Miss and UMass: both are still winless.  Southern Miss plays at 2-6 Rice, UMass plays at 3-4 Vanderbilt.  Both are chances to win but not much of them.

Top 25
1 Florida
2 Notre Dame
3 Oregon
4 Oregon State
5 Kansas State
6 Alabama
7 Ohio State
8 Rutgers
9 Mississippi State
10 Louisville
11 Ohio
12 LSU
13 Oklahoma
14 Texas Tech
15 Cincinnati
16 Clemson
17 Michigan
18 Louisiana Tech
18 Georgia
18 USC
18 Florida State
18 West Virginia
18 South Carolina
18 Texas A&M
25 Northern Illinois
25 Toledo
25 Tulsa
25 Nebraska
25 Wisconsin
25 Western Kentucky

Yeah, using my points system there was a massive jam at #18 and #25.  I didn't feel like overloading my brain to figure out who was really ranked the highest in that.  Keep winning and it will settle itself out.


The picks:
-Clemson at Wake Forest: Wake Forest has been a thorn in Clemson's side for some time.  Between 2003 and 2008 the teams split six games.  Clemson has won the past three, last year the Tigers won it on a late field goal to clench the Atlantic Division of the ACC.  Overall the teams are in similar positions like last year, Clemson should come out on top tonight.  Clemson by 7.
-Tennessee at South Carolina: Tennessee desperately needs this win.  Derek Dooley has not faired well against top 25 teams during his tenure with the Vols.  South Carolina is coming off two straight losses and won't overlook anyone the rest of the way.  South Carolina by 10.
-NC State at North Carolina: Usually this game would indicate who controls the state of North Carolina but UNC has already lost to Wake Forest and Duke this year.  NC State has won 5 in a row over the Tar Heels and that won't stop this year either.  NC State by 10.
-USC at Arizona: USC may be a one loss team but they've not played that well over the course of the season.  Blowing out Colorado isn't an accomplishment this year.  This is also a big trap game for the Trojans with Oregon coming to LA next week.  With all that said, Arizona isn't a bad team at all but doesn't have the horses to keep up yet.  Maybe next year.  USC by 4.
-Duke at Florida State: It is week 9 and the two leaders of the ACC divisions are FSU and DUKE?  I certainly didn't see this coming at the start of the season.  FSU will bring Duke down a level or three.  This may be the best Blue Devils team in a long time, but not good enough to win in Tallahassee.  FSU by 20.
-Florida vs Georgia in Jacksonville, FL: The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is on.  Florida comes into this game ranked #2 in the BCS, Georgia comes in #10.  The last time both teams came in this highly  ranked (or close enough) was 2008.  Dawg fans don't want to remember that game.  UGA hasn't beaten Florida enough lately to count statistics, and that won't change here.  Florida by 10.
-Kent State at Rutgers: You may wonder why this game is here.  Between the two teams there is one loss (Kent State lost earlier in the season to Kentucky).  Rutgers hasn't done anything flashy except win seven games.  Kent State had one big name opponent and lost.  That will be the difference here too, Rutgers wins by 20.
-TCU at Oklahoma State: With Texas faltering a bit Oklahoma State is still alive for the Big 12 title.  TCU comes in after an overtime loss to Texas Tech that may be tough to recover from.  Oklahoma State hasn't lit up teams like they did last year, but they're still winning.  If this game were in Fort Worth I might give TCU a chance, but it isn't.  Oklahoma State wins by 3.
-Texas Tech at Kansas State: Texas Tech has been quite the surprise this year, shutting down West Virginia two weeks ago and winning on the road against TCU last week. Kansas State did the same against West Virginia, but did it in Morgantown.  Tech's one loss was to Oklahoma at home, Kansas State won in Norman.  This should be a fun game to watch, but Kansas State will win.  KSU by 7.
-Ohio State at Penn State: Currently these two teams sit on top of the Big Ten's Leader's division, and neither are eligible for the postseason.  Penn State shook off the horrible start to win five straight, Ohio State simply wins.  Urban Meyer's teams rarely lose to rivals, and this is a good one.  Ohio State by 10.
-Michigan at Nebraska: Last year Michigan beat up Nebraska in Ann Arbor.  Nebraska would certainly like to return the favor.  Michigan doesn't always win pretty, but wins are wins.  So far you have to be undefeated to beat the Wolverines and Nebraska isn't.  Michigan by 3.
-Notre Dame at Oklahoma: Defense wins championships.  Both teams have a pretty good defense.  Oklahoma's offense is a little better, so this game goes to the Sooners.  Oklahoma by 4.
-Mississippi State at Alabama: I have to hand it to Mississippi State.  They've overcome a few obstacles this year to reach this point in the season undefeated.  Prior to this year, under Dan Mullen, Mississippi State hadn't beaten any team in the SEC West that wasn't Ole Miss.  Beating Auburn convincingly changed that.  This isn't Auburn they're playing this week.  This is Alabama.  This won't be pretty.  Alabama comes in playing much better football.  Alabama wins this by 17.

2012 College Football Week 8!

Commentary:
-Half the season is over and some teams may have mailed it in already.  Quite a few probably should but others not so much.  UGA is one of those.  The dawgs' fate isn't in their own hands at the moment but it could be tonight if Florida beats South Carolina.
-The ACC is a virtual dumpster fire yet again.  Out of the national championship picture already, unless FSU can keep it rolling and not get upset again, and even then that's going to require some other teams ahead to lose a couple of times.
-The Big East has three undefeated teams in it, but hasn't made much noise yet.  It will matter more later in the season.
-The Big Ten is certainly taking a hit in the Leaders division with Ohio State and Penn State at the top.  Both teams are unable to go to the postseason this year thanks to being in trouble with the NCAA.
-Kansas State sits atop the Big 12, but for how long?  That conference has a lot of depth this year.
-Notre Dame survives Stanford on a goal line stand that some will talk about for some time.  At this point a win is a win.
-Most pundits expected Oregon and USC to be at the top of the PAC12 divisions, but few expected Oregon State.  The second half of the season out west will be fun to watch.
-Mississippi State may be undefeated in the SEC, which is nothing to laugh at, but the schedule has been kind so far.  The dogs couldn't have expected Auburn and Tennessee to suck out loud but the non-conference slate was weak.  It will get harder the rest of the way.


Cheering For:
-Ohio!  Still undefeated in the MAC and very well may run the table.

Laughing at:
-west Virginia: Why?  well that was embarrasing for the Mountaineers.  They looked completely lost against Texas Tech last week.
-Colorado: If you though the first half of the season was bad, wait for the second half.

Feeling sorry for:
-Tulane won against SMU last week so we're down to three winless teams: UMass, Southern Miss and Eastern Michigan.

Top 25
1 Notre Dame
2 Florida
3 Oregon State
4 Alabama
5 Oregon
6 Ohio State
7 Kansas State
8 Cincinnati
9 Rutgers
10 Mississippi State
11 Ohio
12 Louisville
13 LSU
13 Texas A&M
15 Western Kentucky
16 Oklahoma
17 Louisiana Tech
17 South Carolina
19 Texas Tech
20 Georgia
21 West Virginia
22 Clemson
23 USC
24 Florida
25 TCU
25 Northwestern
25 Tulsa
25 Northern Illinois


The picks:
-Virginia Tech at Clemson: Last year Clemson surprised me twice beating the Hokies in Blacksburg and Charlotte.  Virginia Tech hasn't looked good all year, the Hokies were down 20 to Duke in the first quarter last week before turning it on and throttling the Blue Devils after the first quarter ended.  Clemson hasn't had an off week yet on the field, is it time?  I see a big win here for the Tigers.  clemson by 10.
-LSU at Texas A&M: LSU showed last week that they aren't out of the picture yet.  Coming back and beating a good South Carolina team in Death Valley showed that the loss to Florida may just be that Florida is a damn fine team.  Texas A&M is no pushover and while the game is at Kyle Field, I don't think LSU will have too many issues here.  LSU by 7.
-Stanford at Cal: This is the earliest in the season that these two schools have faced each other, and the loser won't have much left to play for.  Cal is slipping and slipping badly.  Stanford will come out firing after last week's lost to Notre Dame.  Stanford wins by 10.
-South Carolina at Florida: It has been announced that Marcus Lattimore will not start for the Gamecocks, but will play throughout the game.  South Carolina has not looked good on the road at all this year, Florida has been incredibly tough at home.  If the game were in Columbia this would be a win for the Gamecocks.  It isn't and it won't be.  Florida by 7.
-Nebraska at Northwestern: The last time Nebraska visited Northwestern the Great Depression was on.  While the economy isn't exactly doing well these days I think its a bit better.  Northwestern won that game in 1931.  Northwestern won last year too in Lincoln.  I don't think that holds true today though.  Nebraska by 3.
-BYU at Notre Dame: Notre Dame comes in after a tough win against Stanford last week that came down to a goal line stand in overtime.  The Irish may be drained a bit but I don't think it will matter.  BYU isn't good on the road.  Notre Dame by 10.
-Michigan State at Michigan: Both teams have had disappointing seasons so far.  Both got shutdown by Notre Dame, Michigan got beat bad by Alabama, Michigan State had two close losses to Ohio State and Iowa.  Both need a big rebound.  Michigan is still undefeated in Big Ten play but I think that ends now.  Michigan State has won four in a row and it continues until proven otherwise.  Michigan State by 3.
-North Carolina at Duke: Both teams come into this game with a winning record, which I think is a first in a very long time.  North Carolina is coming off a big win on the road against Miami, Duke is coming off a loss to Virginia Tech.  North Carolina has owned the series as of late and I don't pick against streaks.  UNC by 14.
-Kansas State at West Virginia: West Virginia was absolutely shut down last week against Texas Tech and is hoping for a big rebound.  The team didn't forget how to pass but Texas Tech figured out how to stop them.  Overall Kansas State has a stout defense but the numbers don't show a good pass defense.  It will be put to the test today.  Kansas State finds ways to win games like this though.  K-State by 10.
-Alabama at Tennessee: Alabama has been unstoppable.  Tennessee can't stop anybody.  On paper this looks like an easy win.  Games aren't played on paper, they're played on a field.  Tennessee will surprise some with some passing offense, something Alabama hasn't seen much of yet.  It won't be enough though.  Alabama will score with ease and win by 14.
-Baylor at Texas: Between 1998 and 2009 Texas won twelve in a row in this series.  Baylor has won the past two though!  Texas comes in after an embarrasing loss to Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl last week.  A hangover will mean two in a row for the Longhorns as Baylor will light them up.  Will that happen?  I believe so.  Baylor by 10.
-Florida State at Miami: some say this rivalry has lost some luster.  Okay it isn't as big nationally as it used to be, but don't tell the players that.  Jimbo Fisher's FSU teams haven't lost to Miami yet, and I don't see that changing.  FSU comes in after shelling Boston College, Miami comes in with two straight losses to Notre Dame and North Carolina.  FSU wins this one by 4.

2012 College Football Week 7!

2012 College Football Week 7!

We're getting close to that halfway point of the season and I finally have a weekend with no plans to interfere.  I'm sure I just jinxed myself saying that though.

Cheering for:
-Duke: Maybe Cutcliffe has finally got it turned around.  Duke, yes Duke is 5-1 with winnable games left.  The loss was to Stanford!
-Ohio: Frank Solich has the Bobcats undefeated in Week 7 and all of the rest of the games are winnable too.

Laughing at:
-Georgia: I don't get to do this often, so I'll take my chance when I can.  I admit I didn't get to watch the game live last week, glad I didn't as I may have died laughing.  Totally unprepared for South Carolina.  This marks the first time that the Gamecocks have beaten UGA three years in a row.  Steve Spurrier took some time, but has UGA spooked again.  It's official, Georgia just can't handle him.

Feeling sorry for:
-We're down to four winless teams: Southern Miss, Tulane, UMass and Eastern Michigan.  Despite all four teams being in two conferences none are set to play each other.  We will cross our fingers for them anyway.

Top 25:
1) West Virginia
2) Notre Dame
3) Florida
4) Oregon State
5) Oregon
6) Ohio State
6) Alabama
8) Cincinnati
9) Kansas State
10) South Carolina
11) Rutgers
12) Ohio
12) Mississippi State
12) Louisiana Tech
15) Louisville
16) UTSA
17) Texas
17) Baylor
19) Texas A&M
19) LSU
21) Western Kentucky
22) Oklahoma
23) Georgia
24) Texas Tech
25) Iowa State

I think I have the last few right, math is being hard tonight.

The picks:
-Kansas State at Iowa State: Kansas State has been on a roll, but Iowa State is no pushover.  Last year the Cyclones pulled the upset of Oklahoma State at home, the Cowboys' only loss on the year.  Can they do it again?  I doubt it.  Kansas State by 10.
-Northwestern at Minnesota: Both teams suffered their first loss of the season in their respective last games.  Two weeks ago Iowa jumped out to a big lead against Minnesota and won, last week Penn State rallied past Northwestern.  Northwestern appears to be a better team but the game is on the road for them against a rested Golden Gopher team.  Minnesota wins by 3.
-Texas vs Oklahoma in Dallas, TX: Both teams enter this game with a conference loss, loser is pretty much out of the Big 12 race.  Texas has an offense and no defense, Oklahoma has a defense but a decent offense as well. The more balanced Sooners will win this game.  Oklahoma by 4.
-Duke at Virginia Tech: Duke comes into this game with the better record.  Who would have thought that at the start of the season?  I sure didn't.  While the 5-1 start is nice for Duke, the schedule really picks up between here and the end of the year.  Since joining the ACC in 2004 Virginia Tech has had a few close calls against Duke but never lost.  The trend continues despite the Hokies poor start to the season.  VT by 10.
-North Carolina at Miami: While North Carolina is ineligible for the postseason (including the ACC Championship game) this game may very well decide who wins the Coastal division.  Both are playing well in conference.  Miami has two out of conference losses (ugly ones too to Kansas State and Notre Dame).  North Carolina is coming off of a beatdown victory against Virginia Tech.  In true ACC fashion, Miami will win this and look good in the conference but poor out of conference.  Miami by 10.
-Stanford at Notre Dame: Conventional wisdom (well, if you call the talking heads at ESPN wise) says that Notre Dame will have no issues here.  I'm not quite so sure.  This game will tell us a lot about Stanford.  The one road game the Cardinal had was an ugly loss at Washington, this is road game number two.  Notre Dame is built well for this and is playing well to boot.  Stanford will not make this easy, but Notre Dame will win this by 3.
-Oregon State at BYU: Oregon State goes on the road to face a BYU team that at times has struggled to score. While I don't think the Beavers will run away with this one, they will win.  Oregon State by 4.
-West Virginia at Texas Tech: If you like offense tune in to this one.  West Virginia has lit up everyone they've played so far.  Texas Tech doesn't look to have enough on defense to slow them down.  I wouldn't count out the Red Raiders though, Tommy Tuberville knows how to beat top teams (ask Oklahoma).  That would be a huge upset though, and I don't quite see that happening.  West Virginia by 10.
-TCU at Baylor: TCU got a rude awakening last week in a road loss to Iowa State.  Baylor had the week off after getting 70 hung on them by West virginia two weeks ago.  This doesn't look like a standard TCU defense, while Baylor may be missing RG3, they've not slowed down much in his absense.  Baylor wins this one by 7.
-USC at Washington: Washington has had a tough start to the season, playing three top ten teams but winning against one (Stanford).  USC has only played one top 25 team and lost (Stanford again).  USC shouldn't have issues here, but look for a close game.  USC by 1.
-South Carolina at LSU: When is the last time you thought South Carolina could go to Baton Rouge and come out with a victory?  The chance is there this time.  LSU comes in with a host of offensive issues but the defense is solid.  South Carolina comes in knowing they're great on defense but can the offense hold up against LSU's line?  I'm going with LSU here as it is a night game in Baton Rouge.  LSU by 3.
-Texas A&M at Louisiana Tech: Whoever set up Texas A&M's schedule this year should get a dressing down.  Six road games including non-conference games at SMU and Louisiana Tech.  A&M had the tough week 2 loss against Florida but has rolled up wins ever since. Louisiana Tech hasn't lost at all.  Tech has a good offense and will score but doesn't have enough defense to slow down A&M to win it.  Texas A&M wins by 8.

2012 College Football Week 6!

After last week, I can't stomach anymore Georgia Tech football.  Two bad losses in a row and I'm done.

Cheering for:
Ohio: Frank Solich, after getting run out of Nebraska for not being good enough, has turned around Ohio to the point where they are undefeated in week 6 and the win over Penn State is looking better and better.
Kansas State: I know they're supposed to be a big name program again, maybe this is just for Bill Snyder and his uncanny ability to win and win and win.
Northwestern: 5-0 again for a school that really shouldn't be competing given the talent level and resources.

Laughing at:
Georgia Tech: yes, my own alma matter.  Coach Paul Johnson has a lot of explaining to do.  49 points to Middle Tennessee State?  Two straight home losses (first since the 80s).  A loss to a Sun Belt school?  Come on...

Feeling sorry for:
Army: They lost to FCS member Stony Brook last week, but I just cannot put them in a "laughing at" for that.

Top 25:
1) Oregon State
2) Kansas State
3) Cincinnati
4) Texas Tech
4) West Virginia
6) Florida State
6) Notre Dame
8) Oregon
9) Florida
10) Alabama
11) Texas
12) Georgia
12) Ohio State
14) Mississippi State
15) South Carolina
16) Northwestern
17) TCU
17) Louisiana Tech
17) LSU
20) Ohio
21) Louisville
22) Rutgers
23) UTSA
24) UCLA
25) Miami
25) Oklahoma

Oregon State still has the best Strength of Schedule among the unbeatens, hence #1.  The best one loss team is UCLA who lost to #1 Oregon State as their only loss.  Miami and Oklahoma both lost to #2 Kansas State, hence the tie at 25. For the record Iowa State and Baylor come in next, losing to co-#4 Texas Tech and West Virginia.  That's how it works folks.

The picks:
-USC at Utah: As I'm writing this the game is decidely in Utah's favor, but I'm still going with my original pick of USC.  By the time I'm done writing this we should know whether I made the right choice. USC by 10.
-The United States Naval Academy at The United States Air Force Academy: Navy comes in playing rather poorly this year, Air Force is only somewhat better.  Air Force by 10.
-Northwestern at Penn State: Penn State has had a nice little turnaround after a horrible start to the season, but Northwestern has been playing really well all along.  This will be a fun one to watch.  Northwestern by 3.
-Virginia at Duke: It is hard to believe that Duke is 4-1.  Well the schedule has been rather easy minus the road game at Stanford, but this is Duke we're talking about.  Duke snapped a twelve game losing streak to Wake Forest last week, UVA isn't that good even.  Duke by 7.
-LSU at Florida: Alright Florida and Will Muschamp, you want to prove you're back?  You want to prove that last year was an abberation?  You want to be discussed well into October?  Win this one.  LSU hasn't played well as of late and could have some weaknesses in the Les Miles armor.  Doubt LSU and the hat?  Nah, not me.  LSU by 10.
-Georgia Tech at Clemson: Take notice Clemson.  You've been Georgia Tech's bitch for as long as I've followed college football.  There's no excuse for this.  It is time to take it back and keep it that way.  Dabo has done well as a head coach.  Georgia Tech comes in reeling after two really bad losses.  The same could be said last year too, and GT won the game handily.  Clemson, it is time to take control.  Clemson wins by 14.
-Oklahoma at Texas Tech: Oklahoma has not won in Lubbock since 2003 (losses in 2005, 2007 and 2009).  Texas Tech is good, better than I gave them credit for, especially last week when I predicted them to lose at Iowa State.  Texas Tech won last year in Norman.  I just don't see it here.  Oklahoma got the one upset loss out of the way.  Oklahoma by 10.
-West Virginia at Texas: There's a good test for the Texas defense, slow down Geno Smith and the West Virginia offense enough to win this one.  West Virginia has lit everyone up so far, but hasn't faced a defense with a pulse.  The West Virginia defense is quite vulnerable.  Texas slows them down enough and wins by 7.
-UGA at South Carolina: Both undefeated, both meeting later in the season than before, and this is a big showdown in Columbia.  UGA has been scoring at will on good opponents and bad ones.  South Carolina is good, but not that good.  UGA by 8.
-Miami vs Notre Dame in Chicago: It is a crying shame that these teams have met only once in the past twenty years.  Notre Dame beat Miami in the Sun Bowl following the 2010 season.  This matchup should happen a lot more often.  Miami is flying high this year with some big victories and one ugly loss on the road.  Notre Dame is undefeated.  Miami's offense has been on fire, the defense has been suspect.  Notre Dame has had a tough as nails defense that'll slow down Miami enough to win.  Notre Dame by 7.
-Nebraska at Ohio State: These two teams are actually really good, and this should be a fun game to watch if you like slobberknocking defenses.  Nebraska has won all its home games, Ohio State has won on the road.  Ohio State by 3.
-Washington at Oregon: This is Oregon's last test until a trip to USC on November 3.  Washington is in the middle of a three game murderous stretch.  A win over Stanford last week kicked it off.  Next week is USC.  This is the only road game in it, and Oregon is no fun place for visitors.  Oregon by 14.