2012 College Football Week 5!

Administrative note: the move last week about killed me, no time to post.  That should be it for this year.  A trip next weekend shouldn't derail me.

Notes: Wow what a fall for Arkansas.  Never would have imagined one coach making such a huge difference.  Then again we had zero expectations for John L. Smith and he's failed to live up to those.  Ouch.

Cheering for:
-Oregon State: While they've only played two games, both were upsets.  The two teams they've beat haven't lost any other game, so it gives Oregon State a perfect strength of schedule in my system.  Go Beavers!

Laughing at:
-Colorado: you only get sort of a reprieve for the comeback, one-point win against Washington State.  The school is already circling the wagons around coach Jon Embree.  I don't expect he'll remain there after this year.
-John L Smith: did you seriously refer to your school as Alabama?  Dreaming much?

Feeling sorry for:
-Georgia State's players: it really seems like the coaches have already mailed it in this year.

Top 25:
1) Oregon State
2) Florida State
3) Iowa State
4) Notre Dame
5) Oregon
6) Cincinnati
6) Kansas State
6) Texas
6) Texas Tech
6) West Virginia
11) Florida
12) Alabama
13) Ohio
14) Baylor
14) Ohio State
14) TCU
17) Georgia
17) South Carolina
19) Minnesota
19) Mississippi State
21) LSU
22) Louisville
23) Louisiana Tech
23) Rutgers
23) Northwestern

We have 26 undefeated teams, so all of the top 25 have zero losses.  This means that this is pretty much sorted by strength of schedule, with games between two FCS members discounted.  The lone undefeated not here?  UTSA.  The Roadrunners are undefeated in their transitional year to FBS but there are two games against division II opponents!  I don't even know how to count that.

The picks:

-Baylor at West Virginia: Welcome to the Big 12 West Virginia, your first game will give your defensive coordinator nightmares.  Then again this may be a "first to 50 points wins" kind of games.  Should be fun to watch, and while I can appreciate a good Baylor team it won't be able to keep up with the Mountaineers.  WVU by 10.
-NC State at Miami: Alright Miami...  Nice win last week.  If you're truly "back" you won't blow this one.  NC State is good, not great.  Miami is good looking to be great.  Miami would be just outside of the top 25 for me, losing only to undefeated Kansas State.  NC State would be a little further out, losing to one-loss Tennessee.  Miami should win this at home, Miami by 4.
-Duke at Wake Forest: Hard to believe that both teams are 3-1 here.  Duke has been playing well outside a blowout loss to Stanford.  Wake has played well outside of a blowout loss to Florida State.  Duke hasn't beaten Wake since 1999 though, while the last few have been close.  Wake wins here by 7.
-Tennessee at Georgia: Tennessee needs a big win badly, they've not had one against a Top 10 opponent in quite some time, last win against a top 25 was in 2009.  Dooley hasn't fared well against UGA either.  I don't see any reason that Tennessee could pull the upset.  UGA by 14.
-Clemson at Boston College: This will be a good test for Clemson.  Boston College isn't that good but has had Clemson's number in quite a few games between them, as well as coming off a loss last week in a prime time game at Tallahassee.  On paper this won't be close, but games aren't played on paper they're played on a field.  Clemson wins, but it is close, by 3.
-Ohio State at Michigan State: Michigan State won last year at Ohio State, but a lot has changed since then. Ohio State won the previous seven meetings before last year, and while there's been a coaching change since then I don't see this changing much.  Ohio State by 4.
-Virginia Tech vs Cincinnati in Landover, Maryland: If you go by transitive properties, this will be an ugly blowout (VT lost to Pitt, Cincinnati blew out Pitt).  I don't see that happening, but VT is in trouble.  Cincinnati has enough push up front to give VT problems, and that may be enough.  Cincinnati by 10.
-Texas Tech at Iowa State: Both teams are undefeated, though both teams have played one BCS AQ team between them (Iowa State over Iowa).  I don't see much from the Red Raiders to believe that they can go on the road and win this one, so it'll be the Cyclones by 7.
-Texas at Oklahoma State: This will be a statement game for both teams, it will tell a lot for the remainder of the season.  Texas wants to prove that the last two seasons were aberrations, and Oklahoma State wants to prove that the train will keep on rolling even with new quarterbacks.  Texas' defense is the difference here and will lead the Longhorns to a win.  Texas by 4.
-Wisconsin at Nebraska: Last year Nebraska was welcomed to the Big Ten last year by Wisconsin in a 48-17 blowout.  I expect revenge this year as Wisconsin is struggling to score on offense.  Nebraska is doing a bit better on both sides of the ball and should win at home. Nebraska by 10.
-Ole Miss at Alabama: Ole Miss has looked better this year so far than last year under new coach Hugh Freeze, but this is a whole other animal to deal with.  Alabama should be able to shut down the Rebels without too many issues and score enough to make it look easy.  Alabama by 20.
-Oregon State at Arizona: Arizona got embarrassed last week against Oregon after starting strong under new head coach Rich Rodriguez.  Oregon State has had a good start so far with two wins against ranked opponents.  This will show where both programs really are and the more experienced coaching staff here will be the difference.  Oregon State by 10.

College Football 2012 Week 3!

2012 College Football Week 3!

Programming note: Sorry about last week.  I had a great post forming, but due to time constraints and the lack of an internet connection it did not get done at all.  My apologies.

Commentary: We're starting to see things shape out for an interesting season.  Some teams are definitely moving on up while others are falling fast and need to get it in gear.  Last week's Auburn at Mississippi State game showed how each program is doing.  Auburn is falling fast with an 0-2 start while Mississippi State is moving up with a 2-0 record and a victory over a division team (first for head coach Dan Mullen against his division except for Ole Miss).

Cheering for:

-Old Man Football: hey it works and works well it appears.

Laughing at: We've had a slew of FCS over FBS upsets since this season started that I've not mentioned, so here we go:

-Memphis: for losing to Tennessee... Martin.  

-Middle Tennessee: for losing to McNeese State.

-Colorado State: for losing to North Dakota State after beating in-state rival Colorado.  To be fair, ND State is one of the best FCS teams, won the NCAA championship in it last year.

-Colorado: for losing to Sacramento State after losing to in-state rival Colorado State.

-UNLV: for losing to Northern Arizona.

-Idaho: for losing to Eastern Washington

-Pitt: for losing to Youngstown State.  Try not to blow it to Gardner-Webb in two weeks.

-Eastern Michigan: For losing to Illinois State.

Remember folks, these are schools who get 85 scholarship players losing to schools with 63 scholarship players.  The deck is stacked in the FBS schools' favor.

Laughing at Honorary Mentions:

-Houston: for losing to Texas State, who is in their first year at the FBS level.

-Arkansas: for being ranked #8 in the nation and lose to Louisiana-Monroe.  You can talk injuries all you want but you blew a lead against a lesser opponent.

Feeling sorry for:

-Penn State's kicker: you know it has to be rough on him.  Make one of the missed FGs (there were four missed ones) or the XP and that game goes completely differently.

Top 25: none this week, still too damned early.

The picks:

-Wake Forest at Florida State: Alright FSU, here's the deal.  You've lost four of the last six against Wake Forest.  You are highly ranked.  The game is at home.  Lose this one and you might as well pack your bags for the Big 12.  If you're going to lose at least be a b*tch to Texas instead of Wake Forest.  FSU by 10.

-Cal at Ohio State: Cal has not made any noise on the national scene in quite some time.  Jeff Tedford is still coaching there.  I get the feeling if Ohio State runs away with this it will signal the end of his coaching tenure there, or at least lead to his "retirement" at the end of the year.  Ohio State is playing rather well so far.  Cal lost to Nevada to open the season but beat up on FCS member Southern Utah last week.  The signs point to a big Ohio State victory here.  OSU by 21.

-Virginia Tech at Pitt: Pitt fans are going to hope that this isn't a preview of life in the ACC.  Pitt has been horrible so far, VT has at least been decent.  VT by 20.

-Alabama at Arkansas: After last week, Arkansas is reeling.  Starting QB Tyler Wilson is out for the game.  Alabama is rolling.  This one may be over quickly.  Alabama by 24.

-Virginia at Georgia Tech: Alright Georgia Tech, here's the deal: UVA isn't that good.  The game is in Atlanta.  You lost to them last year in Charlottesville.  Get it right this time.  GT by 10.

-Florida at Tennessee: It's about time this game is relevant again.  Florida has won the past seven in a row.  Tennessee hasn't had a good year since 2007.  Both are 2-0 and looking for an SEC East title.  GameDay will be there, should be a fun one.  Never mess with a streak until proven otherwise.  Florida by 3.

-Arizona State at Missouri: Arizona State has been playing well under new head coach Todd Graham.  Missouri could come in with a massive hangover after getting beat up against UGA.  Arizona State will surprise here.  ASU by 7.

-USC at Stanford: Jim Harbaugh is in San Francisco.  Andrew Luck is in Indianapolis.  Matt Barkley is 0-3 against Stanford.  This is his last chance.  USC by 10.

-Megaphone Trophy; Notre Dame at Michigan State: This is an interesting matchup in my opinion.  Both are undefeated coming into the game for the first time since 2005.  I still believe Michigan State is the better team and wins this game by 4.

-Texas at Ole Miss: Burnt Orange invades the Grove.  Ole Miss is playing well under new coach Hugh Freeze but it won't make a big difference here.  There are too many holes to fill on the roster to be that competitive.  Texas by 14.

-Holy War;BYU at Utah: I'm glad to see these two schools keep the rivalry going despite conference changes.  BYU comes in playing well while Utah is a rolling disaster at this point.  BYU keeps it going strong, wins by 10.