Well, the season starts tomorrow, might as well make a few wild predictions.
ACC: FSU beats Virginia Tech in Charlotte.
SEC: Arkansas beats Tennessee in Atlanta.
Big Twelve: Oklahoma, since there's no championship game to lose this time around.
Big East: South Florida, all the other top teams have new coaches.
Big Ten: Wisconsin over Iowa in Indianapolis.
PAC 12: Oregon over Arizona State
Mountain West: TCU in its final year wins it.
WAC: Fresno State finally wins it, in their last year there.
Sun Belt: Florida Atlantic
Conference USA: Houston over UCF in the title game.
MAC: Ohio over Toledo.
BCS Championship game: Oklahoma over Wisconsin.
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
2011 College Football Preview: Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 12
With time running out on me, and limited knowledge, I'm going to combine the rest of the BCS conferences into one update. Maybe next year I'll put more into this, or at least get started earlier.
-I still think it should be called the 12 PAC instead of the PAC 12. The conference even "tapped the Rockies" by bringing in Colorado.
-Welcome Utah and Colorado to the PAC 12. Good luck, you'll need it.
-Also for Colorado: who is this new coach and what the hell are you thinking? This guy has zero previous head coaching experience, and has been little more than a position coach his whole life. This reminds me way too much of the Tim Brewster hire at Minnesota a few years ago. You can see how well that turned out.
-Its strange to see Jeff Tedford not be able to keep up the success he's had at Cal.
-Oregon is still at the top of the class in the PAC 12. Until someone knocks them off of it, I can't pick against them. USC is not bad, but still bowl ineligible this year. Washington is rising. Arizona State could make noise this year. Arizona is someone you don't take lightly.
-I think Stanford will miss Harbaugh a lot. Luck is a good quarterback who will have a good year and Stanford will still be near the top of the PAC 12 this year, but after Luck leaves it will be a major test.
-UCLA, Washington State, Oregon State: Get it together. You all could do so much better.
-Look for Oregon vs Arizona State in the first PAC 12 Championship game.
-Welcome to the Big Ten Nebraska. Enjoy your stay. Leaving 100 years of tradition will not be easy at first but new and good rivalries will be built soon enough. That being said, the conference opener at Wisconsin is going to hurt.
-It will be interesting to see just how far Ohio State falls. Oh yes, they will fall.
-Despite not getting Harbaugh, I think Michigan will be just fine with Hoke. Look for the Wolverines to have a tough year this year, but year two will be fantastic. Year one will have a win over Ohio State just to make the natives excited for year two.
-Penn State is still Penn State, Joe Paterno will never retire.
-I still don't know the Big Ten division setup. If it weren't for the silly names (Legends and Leaders) I wouldn't remember anything about it.
-Look for Iowa vs Wisconsin in the first Big Ten Championship game (yes, I went and looked up who is in which division first).
-Will someone in the Big East please step up and play real football? Last year looked like a mess in the conference. We have new coaches at Pitt, West Virginia, and UConn who all tied for first place in the conference last year.
-West Virginia: Wow, what a mess your offseason was. I would hope all the dust has settled and the team is distraction-free now. If so, it should be a good season.
-Pitt: More offseason drama here too. Oddly enough, I like your second hire for head coach more than your first a happen much this year, but down the road you'll be in better shape than before.
-UConn: I thought it was bad that Syracuse fired Pasqualoni in the first place, decent hire, if he still has it.
-South Florida: Would you hurry up and win this conference already? Quit screwing up late and losing it.
-Look for South Florida to win the conference this year, all the other "favorites" have new coaches.
-The Big 12: I will give Beebe credit for keeping the conference together the way he has, at least what's left of it. However it is just a matter of time before it all comes crashing down.
-Oklahoma: if you blow this chance, it may be awhile before you have it this easy again.
-Texas: Can you just hurry up and declare your hatred of the conference and leave it? We all know you don't want to be here, quit trying to "look good" while everyone else makes plans to leave. The idea of "We didn't destroy the conference, the other 11 teams all left us!" doesn't really work.
-Texas A&M: I can't blame you for leaving the Big 12, especially if that invite from the SEC is coming. I wish you'd hurry up already, though I know you are doing your best to avoid legal issues.
-The rest of the Big 12: Good luck fighting for spots in Conference USA, The Big East, and The Mountain West conference.
-Look for Oklahoma to win the Big 12 after obliterating everyone in their path, including Texas.
-I still think it should be called the 12 PAC instead of the PAC 12. The conference even "tapped the Rockies" by bringing in Colorado.
-Welcome Utah and Colorado to the PAC 12. Good luck, you'll need it.
-Also for Colorado: who is this new coach and what the hell are you thinking? This guy has zero previous head coaching experience, and has been little more than a position coach his whole life. This reminds me way too much of the Tim Brewster hire at Minnesota a few years ago. You can see how well that turned out.
-Its strange to see Jeff Tedford not be able to keep up the success he's had at Cal.
-Oregon is still at the top of the class in the PAC 12. Until someone knocks them off of it, I can't pick against them. USC is not bad, but still bowl ineligible this year. Washington is rising. Arizona State could make noise this year. Arizona is someone you don't take lightly.
-I think Stanford will miss Harbaugh a lot. Luck is a good quarterback who will have a good year and Stanford will still be near the top of the PAC 12 this year, but after Luck leaves it will be a major test.
-UCLA, Washington State, Oregon State: Get it together. You all could do so much better.
-Look for Oregon vs Arizona State in the first PAC 12 Championship game.
-Welcome to the Big Ten Nebraska. Enjoy your stay. Leaving 100 years of tradition will not be easy at first but new and good rivalries will be built soon enough. That being said, the conference opener at Wisconsin is going to hurt.
-It will be interesting to see just how far Ohio State falls. Oh yes, they will fall.
-Despite not getting Harbaugh, I think Michigan will be just fine with Hoke. Look for the Wolverines to have a tough year this year, but year two will be fantastic. Year one will have a win over Ohio State just to make the natives excited for year two.
-Penn State is still Penn State, Joe Paterno will never retire.
-I still don't know the Big Ten division setup. If it weren't for the silly names (Legends and Leaders) I wouldn't remember anything about it.
-Look for Iowa vs Wisconsin in the first Big Ten Championship game (yes, I went and looked up who is in which division first).
-Will someone in the Big East please step up and play real football? Last year looked like a mess in the conference. We have new coaches at Pitt, West Virginia, and UConn who all tied for first place in the conference last year.
-West Virginia: Wow, what a mess your offseason was. I would hope all the dust has settled and the team is distraction-free now. If so, it should be a good season.
-Pitt: More offseason drama here too. Oddly enough, I like your second hire for head coach more than your first a happen much this year, but down the road you'll be in better shape than before.
-UConn: I thought it was bad that Syracuse fired Pasqualoni in the first place, decent hire, if he still has it.
-South Florida: Would you hurry up and win this conference already? Quit screwing up late and losing it.
-Look for South Florida to win the conference this year, all the other "favorites" have new coaches.
-The Big 12: I will give Beebe credit for keeping the conference together the way he has, at least what's left of it. However it is just a matter of time before it all comes crashing down.
-Oklahoma: if you blow this chance, it may be awhile before you have it this easy again.
-Texas: Can you just hurry up and declare your hatred of the conference and leave it? We all know you don't want to be here, quit trying to "look good" while everyone else makes plans to leave. The idea of "We didn't destroy the conference, the other 11 teams all left us!" doesn't really work.
-Texas A&M: I can't blame you for leaving the Big 12, especially if that invite from the SEC is coming. I wish you'd hurry up already, though I know you are doing your best to avoid legal issues.
-The rest of the Big 12: Good luck fighting for spots in Conference USA, The Big East, and The Mountain West conference.
-Look for Oklahoma to win the Big 12 after obliterating everyone in their path, including Texas.
Monday, August 29, 2011
2011 College Football Preview: The ACC
One of these years the ACC is going to have to shake off the "mediocre" label it has earned as a league over the past decade. Will this be the year? I'm not counting on it. About the only way to shake it right now is to straight up beat the SEC in everything. That includes a national title. With expansion not working out quite as well as hoped (it has done well with the money coming in) its looking like the conference has stagnated and is in danger of either being passed by, or picked apart by other conferences looking to expand.
Duke: David Cutcliffe is a great coach. Look at what Tennessee and Ole Miss have been through since his departure. However, this is still Duke where if it ain't basketball, your sport will not get much support from the administration. Its quite sad, it takes more than a coach to get a program rolling like this. That being said Cutcliffe can at least start a few things, and some are predicting a bowl game this year. I don't quite see it, 5 wins at best.
North Carolina: With the firing of Butch Davis so late off-season, the school just effectively killed the team for this year. I don't quite understand the timing of it all, but I'm not one who has to make these decisions. That being said I'd be surprised if the team wins more than four this year. Unstable coaching situations usually lead to poor on-field performance.
Virginia: Second year coach Mike London is optimistic for his team, but he has to be. Last season UVA won a single conference game, and that was an upset of Miami. UVA didn't even beat Duke. This season they may beat Duke and probably North Carolina in conference, but that's about it. With four winnable non-conference games (William and Mary, Indiana, Southern Miss and Idaho) that may be enough to go to a bowl game, which is a start.
Miami: As of this writing, Miami has suspended eight players for the involvement with the booster/convict Nevin Shapiro. As per usual thinking, they have appealed and expect to play against Maryland in the opener for both teams. I think they're full of themselves even if the appeal is heard before the games start. We're not exactly sure who the eight are (one is Jacory Harris, starting QB though) it will not be easy for Miami to win many games without them. If you recall a few years back when Miami players got involved in a massive fight with FIU players, the school suspended 13 (few starters) for the Duke game. Duke was wretched that year but nearly won in the last minute. With eight (and the rumors are that several are starters) suspended already this could be an ugly year for the Hurricanes.
Georgia Tech: As my Alma Matter, I'm highly biased toward the Yellow Jackets. Last year was highly frustrating as a fan to watch. Games that should not have been lost were, and other games appeared that the team was sleepwalking through them. The team suffered a lack of leadership on the field and it showed in those games. From what I've read on message boards (which means about 100% accurate, 10% of the time) that won't be an issue this year. So will the team return to the 9 win level like three years ago, the 11 win ACC title level like two years ago, or the same 6 win level like last year? Well that depends on the talent on the field. Overall I feel like there is less talent on the field than last year, most of it at the Quarterback position. We saw what the team was like without Nesbitt for a good chunk of the season, and it was not pretty at all. Tevin Washington was barely able to beat Duke at home, and lost to Virginia Tech, Georgia and Miami in the regular season, and Air Force in the bowl game. I am hoping he plays better this year than what we saw at the end of last season. I'm guessing eight wins for the team this year.
Virginia Tech: Ah, the most consistent ACC team in the past decade, well since they joined at least. The schedule sets up favorably for the Hokies, the only tough road game will be against the Yellow Jackets in Atlanta. Miami, Clemson, Boston College and North Carolina all have to come to Blacksburg. Florida State is not on the schedule. Virginia Tech should roll right through this and play in Charlotte against the Atlantic Division winner. As usual, the Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech game will decide the Coastal Division.
Wake Forest: Jim Grobe is a fine coach who should have taken the opportunity years ago to coach somewhere else. Still, he is the highest paid coach in the ACC. Sadly he had the poorest record in the conference last year and that may not change this year. Wake is a tough place to succeed at and this year will be no different.
Maryland: I believe that Maryland is going to regret firing Friedgen after last season. I could understand if the AD did it after the 2-10 2009 season, but doing it after an 8-4 finish last year? I believe the department has forgotten how the football team was before Ralph showed up. It takes a special coach to succeed regularly at Maryland and I have no idea if Randy Edsall is that special. The man did well at UConn, but nothing really spectacular. Winning the Big East last year is an accomplishment but UConn was still just 8-4, 5-2 in conference play. I see Maryland having a bad year this year, maybe a good one in year two.
North Carolina State: NC State seems to be unable to get over the hump, win the division, and play in the ACC title game. They've come close a few times but can't quite get there. This year will be no different, in fact the team may be worse than last year. Russell Wilson is no longer here and new QB Mike Glennon takes over. Wilson threw the ball all over the place last year but still completed less than 60% of his passes. Glennon could be more efficient and effective, but is there a running game to support this system? NCSU should be bowl eligible but that's about it this year.
Boston College: BC has been under respected for a long time and continually beats expectations. This is a program that has been to bowl games for twelve straight seasons. There are few teams that can claim that. It does appear that the program has been slipping a bit lately since going to two straight ACC title games. I think that Boston College has the schedule to turn it around a little bit, get to the 9 win mark for the first time in a few years.
Clemson: Ah, say hello to the ACC's perennial underachiever. This program should have at least one if not two ACC titles since FSU's decline in 2001. Yet it has zero, only been to the title game once, and has issues with Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech from the Coastal Division no matter when they play. Dabo Swinney has to be on the hot seat this year, and Clemson is going to see why they should have hired someone better. Look for a losing season without a bowl game this time around.
Florida State: The rest of the media has appointed them as "back." Nobody is ever going to match the run that FSU had in the late 80s and 90s. Fourteen straight Top-Five finishes is about as untouchable as it gets in the College Football world. Now this team should be good. FSU will be in the title game in Charlotte again. I do think that EJ Manuel is a good quarterback, but he isn't Ponder, and FSU will lose a few games this year. I believe FSU is overrated at #5, top 20 is more like it.
So the ACC Title game should have FSU and Virginia Tech in it again, just like last year. I think FSU wins it this time around though.
Duke: David Cutcliffe is a great coach. Look at what Tennessee and Ole Miss have been through since his departure. However, this is still Duke where if it ain't basketball, your sport will not get much support from the administration. Its quite sad, it takes more than a coach to get a program rolling like this. That being said Cutcliffe can at least start a few things, and some are predicting a bowl game this year. I don't quite see it, 5 wins at best.
North Carolina: With the firing of Butch Davis so late off-season, the school just effectively killed the team for this year. I don't quite understand the timing of it all, but I'm not one who has to make these decisions. That being said I'd be surprised if the team wins more than four this year. Unstable coaching situations usually lead to poor on-field performance.
Virginia: Second year coach Mike London is optimistic for his team, but he has to be. Last season UVA won a single conference game, and that was an upset of Miami. UVA didn't even beat Duke. This season they may beat Duke and probably North Carolina in conference, but that's about it. With four winnable non-conference games (William and Mary, Indiana, Southern Miss and Idaho) that may be enough to go to a bowl game, which is a start.
Miami: As of this writing, Miami has suspended eight players for the involvement with the booster/convict Nevin Shapiro. As per usual thinking, they have appealed and expect to play against Maryland in the opener for both teams. I think they're full of themselves even if the appeal is heard before the games start. We're not exactly sure who the eight are (one is Jacory Harris, starting QB though) it will not be easy for Miami to win many games without them. If you recall a few years back when Miami players got involved in a massive fight with FIU players, the school suspended 13 (few starters) for the Duke game. Duke was wretched that year but nearly won in the last minute. With eight (and the rumors are that several are starters) suspended already this could be an ugly year for the Hurricanes.
Georgia Tech: As my Alma Matter, I'm highly biased toward the Yellow Jackets. Last year was highly frustrating as a fan to watch. Games that should not have been lost were, and other games appeared that the team was sleepwalking through them. The team suffered a lack of leadership on the field and it showed in those games. From what I've read on message boards (which means about 100% accurate, 10% of the time) that won't be an issue this year. So will the team return to the 9 win level like three years ago, the 11 win ACC title level like two years ago, or the same 6 win level like last year? Well that depends on the talent on the field. Overall I feel like there is less talent on the field than last year, most of it at the Quarterback position. We saw what the team was like without Nesbitt for a good chunk of the season, and it was not pretty at all. Tevin Washington was barely able to beat Duke at home, and lost to Virginia Tech, Georgia and Miami in the regular season, and Air Force in the bowl game. I am hoping he plays better this year than what we saw at the end of last season. I'm guessing eight wins for the team this year.
Virginia Tech: Ah, the most consistent ACC team in the past decade, well since they joined at least. The schedule sets up favorably for the Hokies, the only tough road game will be against the Yellow Jackets in Atlanta. Miami, Clemson, Boston College and North Carolina all have to come to Blacksburg. Florida State is not on the schedule. Virginia Tech should roll right through this and play in Charlotte against the Atlantic Division winner. As usual, the Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech game will decide the Coastal Division.
Wake Forest: Jim Grobe is a fine coach who should have taken the opportunity years ago to coach somewhere else. Still, he is the highest paid coach in the ACC. Sadly he had the poorest record in the conference last year and that may not change this year. Wake is a tough place to succeed at and this year will be no different.
Maryland: I believe that Maryland is going to regret firing Friedgen after last season. I could understand if the AD did it after the 2-10 2009 season, but doing it after an 8-4 finish last year? I believe the department has forgotten how the football team was before Ralph showed up. It takes a special coach to succeed regularly at Maryland and I have no idea if Randy Edsall is that special. The man did well at UConn, but nothing really spectacular. Winning the Big East last year is an accomplishment but UConn was still just 8-4, 5-2 in conference play. I see Maryland having a bad year this year, maybe a good one in year two.
North Carolina State: NC State seems to be unable to get over the hump, win the division, and play in the ACC title game. They've come close a few times but can't quite get there. This year will be no different, in fact the team may be worse than last year. Russell Wilson is no longer here and new QB Mike Glennon takes over. Wilson threw the ball all over the place last year but still completed less than 60% of his passes. Glennon could be more efficient and effective, but is there a running game to support this system? NCSU should be bowl eligible but that's about it this year.
Boston College: BC has been under respected for a long time and continually beats expectations. This is a program that has been to bowl games for twelve straight seasons. There are few teams that can claim that. It does appear that the program has been slipping a bit lately since going to two straight ACC title games. I think that Boston College has the schedule to turn it around a little bit, get to the 9 win mark for the first time in a few years.
Clemson: Ah, say hello to the ACC's perennial underachiever. This program should have at least one if not two ACC titles since FSU's decline in 2001. Yet it has zero, only been to the title game once, and has issues with Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech from the Coastal Division no matter when they play. Dabo Swinney has to be on the hot seat this year, and Clemson is going to see why they should have hired someone better. Look for a losing season without a bowl game this time around.
Florida State: The rest of the media has appointed them as "back." Nobody is ever going to match the run that FSU had in the late 80s and 90s. Fourteen straight Top-Five finishes is about as untouchable as it gets in the College Football world. Now this team should be good. FSU will be in the title game in Charlotte again. I do think that EJ Manuel is a good quarterback, but he isn't Ponder, and FSU will lose a few games this year. I believe FSU is overrated at #5, top 20 is more like it.
So the ACC Title game should have FSU and Virginia Tech in it again, just like last year. I think FSU wins it this time around though.
Saturday, August 27, 2011
2011 College Football Preview: The SEC
It’s that time again. College football is kicking off in a month. Summer practice is about to begin, we have a bunch of new coaches, a bunch of conference realignment, new championship games, and a bunch of scandal to keep us entertained until the season actually starts!
SEC: Winners of the past five BCS National Championships, the conference is going as strong as ever. Will it be six straight?
-Vanderbilt:I like Vandy's new coach, but this is still Vanderbilt. A 6-6 record is impressive at Vandy, and that won't happen this year.
-Kentucky: With Louisville on the rise, Kentucky is going to have issues keeping up what it has done over the past few years. Joker Phillips is a good coach, but this is Kentucky football, not basketball. A bowl game is not off the table, but that's the limit.
-Georgia: An 0-2 start will doom Coach Richt and the rest of the year. A 2-0 start will get the hype machine going until the middle of the schedule hits. UGA is good enough to win the east and bad enough to finish with Kentucky and Vanderbilt at the bottom. There will be little difference between First and Fourth place in the SEC East. I'm predicting the 0-2 start, especially if Boise blows out UGA in Atlanta to start. UGA won't beat South Carolina no matter how the game in Atlanta goes.
-Florida: A new coach means attitude and playbook adjustments which means at least two conference losses. To be fair that may still be good enough to win the SEC East, remember South Carolina won it last year with three conference losses.
-South Carolina: The Gamecocks are good enough to repeat, if the team can keeps its collective head together. With all the off-field issues this off-season, there is no telling what the team will be like. If South Carolina can go to Athens and win in week 2, the sky is the limit.
-Tennessee: Every year there is a coach in his second year with a school that surprises everyone and wins a division/conference/national title. While I don't think Tennessee is good enough to win the entire SEC, there's no reason to believe the Volunteers can't win the SEC East. Every team in the division has a lot of questions and nobody is penciled in as the champion, so why not? Recently dismissed safety Janzen Jackson will be missed on the defense.
-Ole Miss: Last season was an absolute disaster for the Rebels. This season looks to rebuild as well. The SEC West was the toughest division in the country last year and the Rebels ended up at the bottom of it. The other five members of the division were all ranked when Ole Miss played them, but none ended up being close. Losing to Vanderbilt and Tennessee from the SEC East had to sting as well, given that the SEC West was 16-3 against the SEC East last year (South Carolina over Alabama was the other). The climb up will be a long one, and Coach Nutt may not last long enough to see it.
Auburn: Nobody predicts the Tigers to do much and its hard to replace that much talent. Auburn will be decent, eight wins is possible and there will be an upset or two for a team that doesn’t take them seriously. The coaching staff is still the same, and they know how to get stuff done.
-Arkansas: Everyone expects Tyler Wilson to step in and be a perfect replacement for Ryan Mallet. It is never that easy. Arkansas will be tough, but the preseason ranking of #15 is a bit high. Look for Arkansas to finish with 8 wins and a lower ranking.
-Mississippi State: If they were in the SEC East I would pick them to win the division. As it is being in the West, it isn’t going to happen. Mississippi State hasn't beaten anyone in the SEC West outside of Ole Miss in the past two years and that has to change in order for them to move up in the rankings. Look for a few good wins and some ugly division losses.
-LSU: Some say BCS, some say SEC Champion, some say National Champs. With a QB situation that’s unsettled I would say fourth place in the SEC West. The recent suspension of Jordan Jefferson is going to hurt the team tremendously, he was a leader on the field as well as a good quarterback.
-Alabama: With all the talent on the team last year the Tide had three losses. Less talent means that Alabama isn’t going undefeated this year either. Replacing Julio Jones will be the toughest part in my opinion. I still say Alabama wins the SEC West, and the SEC too, but no national title for the Crimson Tide this year either.
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