Commentary: In the real world, they say only two things are certain: Death and Taxes. In the college football world we can add a few things. Notre Dame over Navy. Georgia Tech loses in Charlottesville, VA. Florida over Georgia in Jacksonville. And Clemson will lose one game they had no business losing every year. I'm sure we could come up with others, but these are relevant this week, well most of them.
During Richt's tenure as head coach he has a 2-8 record against the Gators. Georgia has had way too much talent on the field for that record.
2001: This one was excusable. Florida was good, UGA was rebuilding. It was still a fairly close game. Florida won it.
2002: This one was completely inexcusable. Florida sucked that year (8-5 finish) and UGA finished 13-1. This was the one. UGA *should* have won this one.
2003: This was one a pretty even game overall. Florida won late on a field goal. UGA finished with a better record, but all of Florida's five losses were to teams that finished with ten or more wins! UGA *could* have won this one though.
2004: UGA did win this one. Florida gifted them this one by announcing that head coach Ron Zook would not be retained for the next season during the week before this game. It was still close!
2005: Florida won a low-scoring contest against the eventual SEC Champion Georgia Bulldogs. UGA was without starting QB DJ Shockley for this game, injured the previous week against Arkansas. Still no excuses for me, UGA *should* have won this one.
2006: Florida lost one game all year, and it wasn't this one. Mostly excusable. It was a close game too.
2007: Ah dancing in the end zone. We all remember this well. If not, watch it here on youtube, its worth it. It worked too, UGA *could* have won this game, and did!
2008: I remember the score. I remember watching GT-FSU at the time and watching the ticker go by. It seemed like every few minutes that it flashed up during the second half, Florida scored another touchdown. This was inexcusable for UGA. I know Florida won a national title that year, UGA had just as much talent on the sidelines as Florida did and got blown out. UGA *could* have won this game but lost 49-10.
2009: Florida was the much better team that year. All UGA could do was bring out black helmets.
2010: Both teams were evenly matched up. One miscue in overtime sealed it. UGA *could* have won this game but didn't.
This year, UGA *should* win the game. That's not helped. Twice in the last ten they should have won it, and didn't.
Clemson is another story. This is a team that consistenly finds a way to lose a game, snatch defeat from the jaws of victory every single year. Clemson isn't unique here, but it happens a lot.
2010: Miami and Boston College. Both teams finished 7-6 and weren't that good.
2009: 2-10 Maryland
2008: 8-5 Wake Forest (and that was the last game Tommy Bowden coached there)
2007: 7-6 Georgia Tech (completely shut down on offense, 1/5 on FG attempts)
2006: 8-5 South Carolina (end of season swoon)
2005: 4-7 Wake Forest
2004: 2-9 Duke (one week after upsetting Miami in Coral Gables), 7-5 Georgia Tech (could not have lost this game in worse fashion)
2003: 5-7 Wake Forest
2002: 9-5 Virginia (probably the most excusable on the list)
2001: 5-7 Virginia (lost late to a UVA team that wasn't that good)
So far, Clemson hasn't lost a game this year. Despite that, Vegas only has them as a 3.0 to 4.0 point favorite in this game. That line has actually moved TOWARDS Georgia Tech (opened as 3.5 to 4.5) during the week. I like to think of myself as informed here, but I cannot see what Vegas sees, and what the other people betting see. Is this the one game Clemson lets get away from them? I know Clemson hasn't won at GT since 2003 but still...
Cheering for:
-I want to see Navy beat Notre Dame for the fourth time in five years today.
-Tommy Tubberville: In his career, he is something like 5-5 against top 5 teams. Last week's win over Oklahoma just shows how well he can handle the mental part of the game. Texas Tech went in and just blew by Oklahoma, in Norman mind you. I didn't think this hire made much sense in Lubbock when it was done, but it looks like I may have to eat some words here!
Laughing at:
-Kansas' defense: Geez they are horrible! The unit gives up an average of over 50 points a game right now. Hard to win a conference game when the opposing team knows your plays well and you still give up that many points.
-ESPN College Gameday: For skipping over Manhattan Kansas for LA. Bad idea.
-The Big East: When you've been lapped by the leadership of the ACC and Big 12, you're going to get laughed at. Who is this guy running the conference? It sounds like their expansion plan, to get back to relevancy, is hurried and poorly planned out. Boise State, Air Force, BYU to a conference primarily associated with the New England area? I can't blame any team for bailing as they have.
Feeling sorry for:
-New Mexico: They've not even sniffed a victory over a FBS opponent since their first game against Colorado State. The last two games have been blowouts, losing by a combined 118-7.
-Florida Atlantic: Also winless, the team hasn't even held a lead since Oct 1 against Louisiana-Lafayette, which was lost on the last play.
Top 25: Alabama so low? Well when you're undefeated I go completely by Strength of Schedule. FCS opponents are only counted in the games they play against FBS opponents. Alabama's SoS record is 30-20. LSU's is 29-15. Stanford's record is 20-23.
1) LSU
2) Oklahoma State
3) Boise State
4) Alabama
5) Clemson
6) Kansas State
7) Houston
8) Stanford
9) Oregon
10) Penn State
10) Arkansas
12) Virginia Tech
13) Nebraska
14) Michigan
14) Wisconsin
16) Oklahoma
17) USC
18) Michigan State
19) Texas A&M
20) Texas
21) Washington
22) Georgia
23) South Carolina
24) Texas Tech
25) Baylor
Others receiving votes: West Virginia, Tulsa
The picks: This week's schedule is weak early (only one noon game) and very interesting late!
-Michigan State at Nebraska: As far as I can find, Michigan State has never beaten Nebraska in five meetings. Michigan State has never scored more than 14 against Nebraska either. Go figure. After last week's last second win, I think we're going to see a letdown here. Nebraska by 10.
-The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party; Georgia vs Florida in Jacksonville, FL: See above: Florida by 4.
-Navy at Notre Dame: The Irish were embarrassed last week at home against Southern Cal. Navy isn't USC though. Notre Dame by 7.
-Wake Forest at North Carolina: Strange to think that UNC sits at the bottom of the Coastal Division, while Wake is near the top of the Atlantic. While that says something to me, as I'm picking Wake by 7.
-West Virginia at Rutgers: Now we start WVU's farewell tour. Rutgers hasn't won against WVU since 1994. Yes, 16 straight victories. WVU by 14.
-Baylor at Oklahoma State: This should be fun to watch. Both teams have great offenses. Baylor won't be able to keep up all the way though. Oklahoma State by 14.
-Illinois at Penn State: Penn State may be the quietest 7-1 team in the country. The loss was to Alabama as well! The offense is pitiful but the defense is magnificent. Illinois looked good starting 6-0 but the two losses have been ugly. Expect more of that today. Penn State by 7.
-Oklahoma at Kansas State: At the start of the year I would not have guessed that Kansas State would have the better record coming into this game. That being said, OU was upset last week, not this week. OU by 3.
-South Carolina at Tennessee: Without Marcus Lattimore most people are bailing on South Carolina. Most haven't seen how bad Tennessee is this year. The Volunteers are missing several play makers as well. South Carolina by 3.
-Stanford at Southern Cal: Southern Cal doesn't get any postseason stuff this year due to probation. Last week was one "bowl game" for them and they won well. This week is another. Expect a big fight, with Stanford winning late. Stanford by 3.
-Clemson at Georgia Tech: See above, Clemson by 4.
-Wisconsin at Ohio State: This game really all depends on how Wisconsin responds. Last week was a heart breaker. The Badgers didn't complain, didn't say much even though they could have. If Wisconsin truly puts it behind them, this game isn't close. If they haven't, Ohio State wins. I say they have though, Wisconsin by 14.
*edit* - forgot to pick OU/KSU. Oops!
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