It all starts again Thursday evening. Looking forward to it. The offseason is long, hot, and somewhat boring. We scrap for every piece of information coming out of spring and summer camps, hoping to get a glimpse of something happening. Throw it all out, the real season is here!
The offseasons lately have been less boring than most, thanks to conference realignment. We've still gotten our share of drama outside of that, but the realignment talk really gets things going in a hurry. Long recap:
-The Big 12 has lost two more members, Texas A&M and Missouri. Both are in the SEC now. Texas A&M is in the SEC West while Missouri moves to the SEC East. While that's a bit of a stretch geographically, it keeps all the existing rivalries together and is quite understandable.
-The Big East has lost West Virginia. WVU has moved to the Big 12. There was a big lawsuit over this move, it was settled for $20 million. WVU skips the lengthy 27 month requirement.
-The Mountain West conference has lost TCU. TCU was originally supposed to be in the Big East this year, but backed out after an invite from the Big 12 came.
-The Western Athletic Conference has lost three members: Nevada, Hawaii and Fresno State. All three schools are joining the Mountain West conference.
-The Mid American Conference has lost Temple. Temple joins the Big East in all sports.
-There are four new members to the FBS rank. UMass joins the MAC from the Colonial Athletic Association. Independent South Alabama joins the Sun Belt Conference. Independents Texas State and Texas-San Antonio join the WAC. This brings us to 124 members of the Football Bowl Subdivision.
There are a lot of pending moves as well, most to come after this season.
These moves signal a big shift in college football. It seems we are moving towards bigger conferences at the top, which is going to put a big squeeze on the smaller schools. Those that have done well will continue to do well, those that have not will be hurting in my opinion.
We also saw a shift in the postseason format during the offseason. While it will not be place for a couple of more years, we will have what amounts to a four-team playoff with a committee officially deciding the teams. The Big 12 and SEC conferences have agreed to send their champions to a big bowl that's owned jointly by the conferences. The Big Ten and Pac 12 will still send their champions to the Rose Bowl. The ACC will send its champion to the Orange Bowl against a to-be-determined opponent. The conferences are going to own the TV rights to the bowl games, which is a massive shift in power here. Potentially there's a lot of money to be made with this, we will have to see how it all plays out.
As for this year, nothing really has changed other than realignment. The next few years will see more of it, I'm currently counting 18 schools changing conferences next year in the Bowl Subdivision. But enough of that, lets get down to this season!
Where I am all college football starts with the SEC, and here is no exception!
-Alabama is set for another run. So is LSU. I don't see both of them making the BCS championship game again, not after last year. The game in Baton Rouge will definitely decide that division.
-Arkansas won't survive long with John L. Smith as coach. Likable guy, but Petrino was the reason Arkansas has been so good lately. There's a reason that John L. Smith was fired from Michigan State, and it wasn't personal. He just is not that good of a coach. If Petrino was still coaching, I might have Arkansas winning the division. But due to his own actions he is not. Sorry Hogs.
-Something doesn't seem right at Auburn. Both of the coordinators left in the offseason. That spells trouble in most cases and this one is not an exception. Offensive coordinator Guz Malzahn left to be a head coach at Arkansas State (for less money) and defensive coordinator Ted Roof left for Central Florida (initially) then Penn State. While on the defensive side Brian VanGorder is a good replacement, the offensive side leaves questions with former Temple OC Scot Loeffler taking over.
-Ole Miss starts over again with former Arkansas State head coach Hugh Freeze at the helm. He did well in his one season at Arkansas State, but Ole Miss will be a lot of work.
-Texas A&M comes in with a new head coach, for University of Houston coach Kevin Sumlin. While that's a great hire, there's a lot of work to do just to compete in the SEC West. I get the feeling there will be quite a few who miss the Big 12 after this season.
-Missouri is quite happy to be here, will be interesting to see how well they do. There's a lot of starters returning including a good QB in James Franklin. The conference opener is against UGA in week 2 at home, the excitement is already there for it.
-Florida is still in rebuilding mode. Last season was a complete wash in my opinion and there's a lot of work to be done. A good defense returns and that will make a huge difference.
-South Carolina is set to be fighting for the SEC East title. The schedule isn't favorable, but its still possible.
-UGA is loaded on defense and expects to be good on offense. Troubles at the running back spot will hurt, and the offensive line is new and may not be ready in time for the game at Missouri.
-Tennessee is expected to be better but after last year that doesn't take much. Dooley's seat is already warm.
-Vanderbilt is Vanderbilt, but they are not an easy win anymore. Most teams will beat them, but it will take effort.
The ACC needs to do better this year. The past few years have not looked good at all.
-FSU is expected to win the conference this year. Most of the talking heads in the media think that FSU is back, this is their year, lots of returning starters, etc. Those lazy people just don't get it. FSU isn't coming back. While they may have a good year, they won't win the division, much less the conference.
-Clemson is here to stay after winning the ACC last year. While they won't play for a national title, the team will be good and at the top of the Atlantic division for awhile.
-Virginia Tech is the one consistency of the conference. Consistently at the top but can't win a bowl game to save their turkey butt. This year will probably be the same.
-Georgia Tech may surprise, but the opener will tell the most. A big loss there and the team's season is practically over. A close loss means more. A win sets the team off on a good year.
-North Carolina is starting over, on probation, but expected to win a lot. I don't see that happening. Larry Fedora is a good coach, not a great one. UNC needs a great one to win.
-NC State will be pushing for the Atlantic division title. If they can play like they did against Clemson last year, this will be a good year.
-Duke and Wake Forest have uphill battles, as usual.
-Virginia will take a step back this year. Last year was a nice run but they don't have what it takes to be there consistently, yet.
-Protip to Randy Edsall at Maryland: Ralph Friedgen was fired two seasons ago after going 2-10 one year, 9-4 the next. You went 2-10 last year. You should be thinking about ten wins this year or polishing up the resume. With the roster you have, you'll be a lot closer to ten losses than ten wins this year. Good luck.
-There are no Matt Ryan's on Boston College's roster this year. We'll know pretty quickly how good BC is with Miami visiting in week one.
-Speaking of Miami, try not to blow the opening game against a bad team like you did last year. You may need the win down the road.
The Big East conference needs a big year from its members to remain relevant. Despite some success on the field the perception is that the Big East is not big at all.
-This is Syracuse's and Pitt's last year in the conference. Both will depart for the ACC at the end of the academic year. From what I can tell both are looking forward to it. Both should be competitive in the conference and one very well may win it.
-Rutgers has lost long time coach Greg Schiano to the NFL, replaced by Offensive Line coach Kyle Flood.
-South Florida needs to bounce back after a disappointing 5-7 season. Non-conference games against Florida State and Miami will go a long way to telling us how good the Bulls are.
-Louisville needs to take a step up with the departure of WVU. Charlie Strong is building something good here. The Cardinals need to avoid early season upsets like last year's losses to FIU and Marshall.
-Cincinnati may very well win this conference this year.
-The conference welcomes Temple back to the fold. Temple was a football only member kicked out in 2004 for poor performance. I can see a rivalry with UConn forming here. UConn was brought in to replace them.
The Big Ten conference needs no introduction, but made a lot of news in the offseason in the wrong way.
-Enough has been said of the scandal at Penn State lately, no need to get into it here. The results are what matters though. Penn State will be ineligible for post-season play, has a lot fewer scholarship players, and lost a bunch of good players due to transfers. Bill O'Brien has his work cut out for him, that's for sure. The next few years will be tough.
-Ohio State is also ineligible for post-season play this year. New head coach Urban Meyer will have them playing like they're fighting for a post-season birth though.
-Denard Robinson is back at Michigan for his senior season. We will know quickly how good this Michigan team is as they play Alabama in Dallas, Texas for the opener. The rest of the schedule doesn't get any easier.
-Wisconsin is set to return to the Big Ten Championship game. Most of the difficult conference opponents are coming to Camp Randall stadium, and the rest are all winnable games.
-Michigan State also has a clear path for a rematch of last year's Big Ten Championship game. A three game stretch in late october (@Michigan, @Wisconsin, vs. Nebraska) will determine their season.
-Iowa and Nebraska aren't out of it either, but have very loaded parts of the schedule that determine their seasons.
The Big 12 survives another year with ten teams, some of them very good.
-Oklahoma State lost a lot of starters off of last year's Big 12 Championship team. While that may mean a step back, the Cowboys will still have a good year.
-Oklahoma is expected to rise up and win the conference again, but they had the same expectations last year and fell short. Ranked in at #4 in preseason shows what most think, and I tend to agree. With Mike Stoops returning to the defensive coordinator position we will see the return of a dominant Sooners' defense.
-Texas is still recovering a bit, should be better this year but not challenge for the Big 12 title. With games at Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Texas Tech, along with the annual game with Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl, this doesn't look promising for the Longhorns.
-Texas Tech bombed the latter half of last year after upsetting Oklahoma in Norman. This year's schedule sets up similarly, but I'm guessing the Sooners' won't be surprised this time around. Tubberville may be fighting for his job by the end of the year.
-Baylor will come back down now that Robert Griffin III is gone. It won't be easy to replace him.
-West Virginia and TCU enter the Big 12. WVU is expected to compete for the title and very well may. Head coach Dana Holgorsen is quite familiar with the conference after serving as Offensive Coordinator for both Texas Tech and Oklahoma State in the past decade. I think WVU will be good but not at the top. TCU will be middle of the pack at best. The Big 12 won't be like the Mountain West at all.
The PAC 12 returns with several good teams at the top.
-USC is off of its post-season ban, and sitting at the top of the polls. The talent on the team is great, and other than Utah there isn't much challenging for the PAC 12 South title.
-Utah came close to winning the division last year, and will be up there again this year. USC visits Salt Lake this year.
-UCLA starts over with a new coach, Jim Mora Jr. There will be plenty of rebuilding going on there.
-Arizona and Arizona State both have new coaches (Rich Rodriguez and Todd Graham respectively). Both have high expectations down the road but this year will be in full rebuilding mode. I expect Arizona to do more than Arizona State.
-Colorado has to do better this year. Last year was an utter disaster under first year coach Jon Embree. Sadly I don't see any big reason to believe it will be better.
-Oregon is still the class of the PAC 12 North until someone else proves otherwise. The Ducks are loaded again and look to win the division.
-Washington will have a tough year with no true home field (Husky Stadium is undergoing renovations). With an entirely new defensive staff there will be troubles at the beginning. An early season game at LSU will be ugly. The rest of the way should be good though.
-Washington State made the news by hiring former Texas Tech head coach Mike Leach. The Cougars have had several bad seasons in a row now, as Paul Wulff could not get anything going in Pullman. Leach will have troubles initially, but will eventually get it going. This year will not be pretty.
-With Andrew Luck gone and most of the players left over from the Jim Harbaugh days it will be tough for Stanford to keep going like they had been. Look for the wins to be tough to come by this year. Bowl eligibility is not out of the question though!
-Whatever happened to Cal? They've not made any noise in years now it seems. Part of that may be the fact I'm an east-coast person, but I remember when Cal was highly ranked for quite some time. Jeff Tedford still coaches there, so something has to be going right.
-Same goes for Oregon State. The past couple of seasons have trended downwards for the Beavers. Mike Riley might be on a rather warm seat this year.
The Mountain West Conference is going to struggle a bit. Boise State won't be nearly as good this year, TCU is off to the Big 12, and realignment is going to take its toll.
The MAC is relatively stable, losing Temple but adding FBS rookie UMass.
Conference USA looks to keep things going this season. Realignment will be huge on its membership next year. Southern Miss and Houston, both of last year's division winners have new coaches.
The Sun Belt conference has been trying to move up a bit. New teams are coming in this year and next, with a few losses. League champion Arkansas State has a new head coach in former Auburn offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn.
The WAC... is going to die soon. Realignment has already hit hard, and next year it will be worse. Three teams left this year with two coming in. This will leave the conference with seven teams this year. Five teams will leave at the end of the season for other conferences, the other two (Idaho and New Mexico State) will be independent. Oddly enough Idaho and New Mexico State finish in the bottom two spots in the conference last year.
So who is winning what? Well let me think about it.
-The ACC champion will be Virginia Tech. Clemson will face them in the Championship game.
-The Big East will be won by Cincinnati.
-The Big Ten will be won by Wisconsin again. They will face Michigan in the Championship game.
-The SEC will be won by Alabama. The Crimson Tide will face Florida in the Championship game.
-The Big 12 will be won by Oklahoma.
-The PAC 12 will be won by USC. They will face Oregon in the Championship game.
-Conference USA will be won by East Carolina. They will face Tulsa in the Championship game.
-The WAC will be won by Louisiana Tech again.
-The MAC will be won by Toledo. They will face Ohio in the Championship game.
-The Mountain West will be won by Boise State.
-The Sun Belt will be won by Western Kentucky.
BCS Championship game prediction: Alabama vs USC.
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs Michigan State
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs Cincinnati
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs Oregon
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs Clemson
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