Administrative note: the move last week about killed me, no time to post. That should be it for this year. A trip next weekend shouldn't derail me.
Notes: Wow what a fall for Arkansas. Never would have imagined one coach making such a huge difference. Then again we had zero expectations for John L. Smith and he's failed to live up to those. Ouch.
Cheering for:
-Oregon State: While they've only played two games, both were upsets. The two teams they've beat haven't lost any other game, so it gives Oregon State a perfect strength of schedule in my system. Go Beavers!
Laughing at:
-Colorado: you only get sort of a reprieve for the comeback, one-point win against Washington State. The school is already circling the wagons around coach Jon Embree. I don't expect he'll remain there after this year.
-John L Smith: did you seriously refer to your school as Alabama? Dreaming much?
Feeling sorry for:
-Georgia State's players: it really seems like the coaches have already mailed it in this year.
Top 25:
1) Oregon State
2) Florida State
3) Iowa State
4) Notre Dame
5) Oregon
6) Cincinnati
6) Kansas State
6) Texas
6) Texas Tech
6) West Virginia
11) Florida
12) Alabama
13) Ohio
14) Baylor
14) Ohio State
14) TCU
17) Georgia
17) South Carolina
19) Minnesota
19) Mississippi State
21) LSU
22) Louisville
23) Louisiana Tech
23) Rutgers
23) Northwestern
We have 26 undefeated teams, so all of the top 25 have zero losses. This means that this is pretty much sorted by strength of schedule, with games between two FCS members discounted. The lone undefeated not here? UTSA. The Roadrunners are undefeated in their transitional year to FBS but there are two games against division II opponents! I don't even know how to count that.
The picks:
-Baylor at West Virginia: Welcome to the Big 12 West Virginia, your first game will give your defensive coordinator nightmares. Then again this may be a "first to 50 points wins" kind of games. Should be fun to watch, and while I can appreciate a good Baylor team it won't be able to keep up with the Mountaineers. WVU by 10.
-NC State at Miami: Alright Miami... Nice win last week. If you're truly "back" you won't blow this one. NC State is good, not great. Miami is good looking to be great. Miami would be just outside of the top 25 for me, losing only to undefeated Kansas State. NC State would be a little further out, losing to one-loss Tennessee. Miami should win this at home, Miami by 4.
-Duke at Wake Forest: Hard to believe that both teams are 3-1 here. Duke has been playing well outside a blowout loss to Stanford. Wake has played well outside of a blowout loss to Florida State. Duke hasn't beaten Wake since 1999 though, while the last few have been close. Wake wins here by 7.
-Tennessee at Georgia: Tennessee needs a big win badly, they've not had one against a Top 10 opponent in quite some time, last win against a top 25 was in 2009. Dooley hasn't fared well against UGA either. I don't see any reason that Tennessee could pull the upset. UGA by 14.
-Clemson at Boston College: This will be a good test for Clemson. Boston College isn't that good but has had Clemson's number in quite a few games between them, as well as coming off a loss last week in a prime time game at Tallahassee. On paper this won't be close, but games aren't played on paper they're played on a field. Clemson wins, but it is close, by 3.
-Ohio State at Michigan State: Michigan State won last year at Ohio State, but a lot has changed since then. Ohio State won the previous seven meetings before last year, and while there's been a coaching change since then I don't see this changing much. Ohio State by 4.
-Virginia Tech vs Cincinnati in Landover, Maryland: If you go by transitive properties, this will be an ugly blowout (VT lost to Pitt, Cincinnati blew out Pitt). I don't see that happening, but VT is in trouble. Cincinnati has enough push up front to give VT problems, and that may be enough. Cincinnati by 10.
-Texas Tech at Iowa State: Both teams are undefeated, though both teams have played one BCS AQ team between them (Iowa State over Iowa). I don't see much from the Red Raiders to believe that they can go on the road and win this one, so it'll be the Cyclones by 7.
-Texas at Oklahoma State: This will be a statement game for both teams, it will tell a lot for the remainder of the season. Texas wants to prove that the last two seasons were aberrations, and Oklahoma State wants to prove that the train will keep on rolling even with new quarterbacks. Texas' defense is the difference here and will lead the Longhorns to a win. Texas by 4.
-Wisconsin at Nebraska: Last year Nebraska was welcomed to the Big Ten last year by Wisconsin in a 48-17 blowout. I expect revenge this year as Wisconsin is struggling to score on offense. Nebraska is doing a bit better on both sides of the ball and should win at home. Nebraska by 10.
-Ole Miss at Alabama: Ole Miss has looked better this year so far than last year under new coach Hugh Freeze, but this is a whole other animal to deal with. Alabama should be able to shut down the Rebels without too many issues and score enough to make it look easy. Alabama by 20.
-Oregon State at Arizona: Arizona got embarrassed last week against Oregon after starting strong under new head coach Rich Rodriguez. Oregon State has had a good start so far with two wins against ranked opponents. This will show where both programs really are and the more experienced coaching staff here will be the difference. Oregon State by 10.
No comments:
Post a Comment