Commentary: Week 4 didn't produce any massive upsets near the top. We are left with 22 undefeated teams going into week 5 and October. We are guaranteed that 5 of these will leave the week with one loss.
Cheering for:
-The first part of the Commander-in-Chief's trophy is played for this week. Air Force travels to Navy in a game that should be quite fun!
Feeling sorry for:
-Well we have our first coaching change in the season. I hate it for the players who are in disarray and the coaches who are unemployed. Well, the one coach has a buyout and is getting part of it so he won't be hurting much.
Laughing at:
-Mike Locksley: We have a candidate for "Dumbass of the Year" award. He was hired for the 2009 season at New Mexico. Before he even coached a game he had a Sexual Harassment charge. He received an assault charge against a co-ordinator. I think both were dropped, but it earned him a one game suspension. So what happens now? Well a recruit was arrested for aggravated DWI, failure to show a driver's license, and probably a host of other charges. Normally this would merely be reasons to just stop recruiting the kid. In this case though, the recruit was driving Mike Locksley's vehicle. Yeah there is only a few dozen NCAA rules broken there. Sometimes you make the decision easy for your boss, in this the athletic director. Locksley is now without a job.
-Maryland: Congratulations for letting West Virginia beat you twice. Not showing up against Temple was a bad thing.
-New Mexico: You don't quite get a pass from me just because your coach is a dumbass. You still lost to Sam Houston State in week four of the season.
-Minnesota: Ya know, I don't think Glenn Mason ever lost to a FCS school. Jerry Kill, do you realize what you signed up for yet? You've got a looooong way to go for just "respectable."
-UNLV: not only did you lose to a FCS school... you got blown out by a FCS school. Wow you really have to be bad for that.
Top 25: I know what you're thinking. "Iowa State at #1? Are you crazy?" Well, yeah I am. I didn't think I would do this before week 5 or 6, but I went ahead and put my formula in place for this week. That formula is sorta simple. I rank the undefeated teams first with respect to Strength of Schedule. Iowa State's three opponents have one loss between them that isn't Iowa State. LSU and Nebraska are technically tied at #2 with their opponents have two losses that aren't the two teams. One loss teams are ranked by who they lost two. There are 19 teams with one loss where the one loss is an undefeated team. Iowa gets put at the top since they lost to #1 Iowa State. West Virginia and Oregon are next as they lost to LSU. Washington and Wyoming can complain as they lost to Co-#2 Nebraska. This is where the opinion comes in.
1) Iowa State
2) LSU
2) Nebraska
4) Clemson
4) South Carolina
6) South Florida
6) Michigan
8) Alabama
8) Georgia Tech
8) Illinois
11) Oklahoma State
11) Virginia Tech
13) Texas
13) Baylor
15) Oklahoma
16) Wisconsin
17) Florida
17) Boise State
17) Stanford
20) Houston
21) Texas Tech
21) Kansas State
23) Iowa
24) Oregon
25) West Virginia
Others Receiving "votes": Washington, Wyoming
Weekly picks:
-South Florida at Pitt: South Florida is 4-0, Pitt is 2-2. Usually USF starts out strong and then melts down toward the end of the year. To be fair, they usually get to 5-0 or 6-0 before that occurs. Why mess with a streak? USF by 7.
-Southwest Classic; Texas A&M vs Arkansas in Arlington, TX: Starting next year this will actually be a conference game! Texas A&M has not fared well against Arkansas and other SEC schools lately, and I don't see a change here. A&M is good, Arkansas is too. Arkansas by 10.
-Mississippi State at Georgia: Bet your mortgage on the Bulldogs winning this game. Oh wait that won't work. Last year UGA's season went downhill badly after losing at Mississippi State. This year could be the same. You would think that UGA wouldn't let it happen two years in a row, but it very well might. MSU looked fortunate to win against Louisiana Tech last week, but that can be excused as a "LSU hangover." UGA's defense will have to play well to contain this offense, and I believe it will. UGA by 3.
-The Little Brown Jug; Minnesota at Michigan: This game couldn't be at a worse time for Minnesota. That team is falling apart quickly, the coach is having medical issues, and Minnesota has beaten Michigan exactly once out of the past twenty tries. I'm not messing with a streak here either. Michigan by 20.
-Commander-in-Chief's Trophy; The United States Air Force Academy at The United States Naval Academy: Last year Air Force broke Navy's stranglehold on the trophy. Both teams are playing well this year, so I'm going with home-field advantage for Navy. Navy by 6.
-Baylor at Kansas State: So why is this game here? Because in week five, both teams are undefeated. Both have even had a test of their skill and passed it. I believe the difference here is that Kansas State went on the road to win their test, Baylor hasn't left home yet. Kansas State wins at home by 7.
-Auburn at South Carolina: South Carolina appears to be struggling on offense quite a bit. I think a good part of that has been the competition, and the other part may just be bad offense. However the team has managed to win every game so far. The defense has been decent, or maybe just good enough. Auburn had that last year, but not this year. USC-east by 3.
-Clemson at Virginia Tech: Clemson has been one of the bigger surprises so far this season. A win against Auburn and Florida State in back-to-back weeks has thrust them up in the ACC and national spotlight. Lets be fair here, both of those teams had plenty of baggage going into the games and both games were in Clemson. Clemson had two ugly showings against patsies early. Clemson hasn't been on the road yet with all of those freshmen and other first year starters making plays. Clemson hasn't beaten Virginia Tech since 1989 (0-5 since then). Clemson is in for a rude awakening in Blacksburg. VT by 20.
-Texas at Iowa State: Last year Iowa State managed to get a big monkey off its back by winning at Texas. I see revenge here. Lots of revenge. Texas won't let that happen again. Texas by 10.
-Alabama at Florida: Florida has been a nice surprise so far, they've been tougher on the field than most expected them to be. The team has played well under the new head coach and coordinators. That being said Alabama is just too strong here. I see Florida keeping it close, but not close enough to win. Alabama by 4.
-Nebraska at Wisconsin: Welcome to the Big Ten Nebraska! Your first conference game will be against mighty Wisconsin in Camp Randall Stadium. Both teams are playing well, both are run-first offenses, both could be near the tops of the polls towards the end of the season. I see Russell Wilson being the difference here at home. Wisconsin by 7.
-The Shillelagh Trophy; Notre Dame at Purdue: Notre Dame has turned it around nicely since the 0-2 start beating Michigan State and Pitt. Purdue hasn't been pretty on the field at all. Notre Dame should win this game easily after Purdue has a fast start. Notre Dame by 14.
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